Potential RE contracted capacity Assessed by project development stage and readiness
Current grid application
Environmental Impact Assessment approved Future grid application
Advanced development*
9676
47,355
3282
Under development**
13,790
15,422
Early stage***
39,513
Contracted capacity (MW)
Source: NTCSA 2024 Grid Survey. Notes: * 3 years to COD granted immediate grid connection; ** 3-5 years to COD if granted immediate grid connection ; *** Could reach COD in 5-7 years
Northern Cape or Hydra Central, nor in the Eastern and Western Cape areas with pipelines of 8.9GW and 7.6GW respectively. Free State had 1.4GW of available connection capacity. The largest amounts of grid capacity were available in KwaZulu Natal – the only supply area where the pipeline was less than available grid connection – and in Gauteng and Mpumalanga (See map). But while the totality of potential grid connection requests is huge, the number of projects at a stage when they could viably be connected to the grid within a three-year time frame, and which have also applied for a connection is more manageable. Just 7% of advanced projects – requiring 9.7GW of contracted grid capacity – have a current grid application. A second group of projects which could be operational in three to five years have also requested connections. They require a further 15.4GW of connection capacity. This means that in most of the supply areas where grid capacity for 2025 was available according to Eskom’s end 2023 assessment, the relevant projects can probably advance. With grid expansions progressing, the question is how quickly will development of generation projects outstrip NTCSA’s ability to provide new connection capacity.
Grid constraints Since 2007, South Africa has experienced rolling blackouts as demand for electricity has exceeded supply, with the worst impact felt in 2023. The emergency liberalisation of the sector has resulted in an explosion in the size of project pipeline. According to NTCSA’s 2024 Grid Survey, the planned installed capacity of the whole renewable energy pipeline in 2022 was 63GW. It grew to 93GW in 2023 and reached over 172GW in 2024. This is equivalent to nearly tripling in the space of two years. The survey estimates that NTCSA would need to contract about 134GW of grid connection to meet the requirements of this pipeline capacity. It indicated that about 45% of this capacity is at an advanced stage of development, meaning that if granted an immediate grid connection it could be commissioned within three years. The supply areas where the most grid connection capacity is needed are Northern Cape (29.2GW), Free State (20.6 GW) and Hydra Central (18.7GW). According to Eskom’s 2025 Generation Connection Capacity Assessment (GCCA) published in October 2023, there was no grid capacity available in either
South Africa’s Energy Prospects
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