Notably, new wind generation bids have been set aside for both the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP)’s six and seventh bid rounds. Against this backdrop, it becomes extremely urgent to expand and modernise grid infrastructure to accommodate new generation capacity. According to NTCSA’s 2024 Transmission Development Plan, ZAR112bn ($6bn) is required to fund the construction of 14,494km of transmission lines and 210 transformers during the TDP’s first five-year horizon. An adequate capital budget has been secured for the plan’s first five years, but most of the capital spend is in the later five-year period, when NTCSA’s capital plan is limited by its balance sheet and allowable revenue stream. While NTCSA thinks it can build the infrastructure in the TDP’s first five years, it needs help to deliver beyond then. TDP 2024 expects generating capacity to increase from 66GW to 107GW a decade later, in 2034. This would be accompanied by a substantial change in the technology mix, with the increased generation mainly be driven by wind, gas, rooftop solar photovoltaic and utility solar PV capacity. For the reforms to be successful, ESI players emphasise that the Eskom unbundling must duly be completed – as it is integral to the success of an open, transparent and equitable grid, which is finally accessible to all market participants.
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South Africa’s Energy Prospects
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