Despite the progress made, excess demand over supply remains a pressing concern
…with excess demand above its 2019–2021 average
Demand remains greater than supply…
excess demand
21
4
2019-2021 average 2023-2024 average
20
3.5
19
3
2023 avg
18
2.5
17
2
16
2024 avg
1.5
15
1
14
Demand
Supply
0.5
13
12
0
2019 2020 2021
2022 2023 2024 2025
2019 2020 2021
2022
2023 2024
Source: Eskom & Nedbank calculations
Excess demand is compensated for by load reductions + increased imports + open-cycle gas turbines
There has been a decline in the compensatory load, driven by the reduction in excess demand
The more sustained decline in the compensatory load has been fuelled by the decline in excess demand over supply
Supply (5 month ma)
Demand (5 month ma)
Compensatory load
Average (2019-2021)
Excess demand (5 month ma)
4.0
21
5 per. mov. avg. (Compensatory load)
Average 2022
20
3.5
19
3.0
18
Compensatory load = load reductions + OCGT usage + international imports
2.5
17
16
2.0
15
1.5
The decline in excess demand has been driven by a sharper and sustained decline in demand relative to the increase in supply
14
1.0
13
12
0.5
2020 2021
2022
2023
2024 2025
19/04 19/10 20/04 20/10 21/04 21/10 22/04 22/10 23/04 23/10 24/04 24/10
Source: Eskom & Nedbank calculations
25
South Africa’s Energy Prospects
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