The achievement of stable electricity supply requires a sustained improvement in generative capacity and less dependence on the compensatory load
80% of Eskom’s supply is from old coal- fired powered stations
New installations of RE stalled in 2024 before increasing at the start of 2025
Wind PV CSP Other RE Total RE
7000
6635
20
6280 6280 6280
5761
6000
5049
5000
15
4076
4000
10
Total RE Pumped water generation and SCO Hydro water generation and SCO Eskom gas SCO Eskom gas generation
3000
2000
5
Nuclear generation Compensatory load Thermal generation Contracted demand
1000
0
0
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024 2025
2019 2020 2021
2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Eskom & Nedbank calculations
Relying on aged energy infrastructure is disconcerting: The Opera Assessment Report underscores the need for comprehensive reforms and upgrades to Eskom’s infrastructure
The report highlights the following issues at Eskom:
The report makes the following recommendations:
1. Deteriorating plant conditions – The report highlights that many of Eskom’s coal-fired power plants are in poor condition due to years of inadequate maintenance and operational practices. Specific issues include the poor state of water treatment plants at Medupi, Matimba, and Kendal, which, if not addressed, could result in significant power outages. 2. Low Energy Availability Factor – When writing the report, Eskom’s coal fleet had an EAF of around 51%, well below the international benchmark of 78%. An indication that Eskom’s infrastructure is not operating efficiently due to mismanagement and sub-standard maintenance practices. 3. Risk of severe load-shedding – The report warns that if Eskom does not improve its infrastructure, the country could face load-shedding levels as high as stage 13 due to the potential loss of 13 000 megawatts of generation capacity from critical power stations like Matimba, Kendal, and Medupi.
1. Need for an infrastructure overhaul – A complete overhaul of Eskom’s centralised organisational structure to improve decision-making and operational efficiency. It recommends adopting a model like European utilities, which involves decentralising operations and granting more authority to plant managers. 2. Emergency maintenance and upgrades – Urgent maintenance and upgrades are needed for critical components, such as water treatment plants and flue gas stacks, to prevent large-scale power outages. The report suggests that bringing in private contractors with expertise in running similar plants could significantly improve the performance of Eskom’s infrastructure. 3. Addressing design issues – The report acknowledges that while some design issues contribute to the poor performance of plants like Medupi and Kusile, the primary problem lies in Eskom’s deviation from prudent operation and maintenance practices. It suggests that addressing these design and operational flaws is crucial for improving plant availability and efficiency.
South Africa’s Energy Prospects
26
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