Energy security thus remains compromised
Reliance on the compensatory load is evidence thereof
4000
Compensatory load
average (2019-2021) average 2022
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2019 2020 2021
2022
2023 2024 2025
So are extraordinarily high levels of unplanned outages and the reality of load-shedding
2500
20
Unplanned capability loss factor (UCLF) UCLF 5 month ma
Manual load reduction (i.e. LS)
18
LS returned in Q1 2025. This followed an increase in unplanned outages while many units were offline for planned maintenance. 589.04 GW were shed over the quarter– 85% less than in Q1 2024 but 6.1% more than in 2022.
2000
16
1500
14
12
1000
10
500
8
6
0 2019 2020 2021
2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Eskom & Nedbank calculations
27
South Africa’s Energy Prospects
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