Grid-connected installed capacity, 2010-2024
Battery
60,000
Biomass
50,000
Wind
Solar
40,000
Nuclear
30,000
Hydro
20,000
Natural gas
Liquid fuels
10,000
Coal
0
2010 2011 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Source: African Energy Live Data © African Energy 2024 (www.africa-energy.com)
A rapid increase in behind the meter generation has also helped mitigate the power supply crisis. Small scale embedded generation (SSEG) registrations increased by 474% and solar PV installations by 138% between December 2022 and December 2024. As a consequence, the amount of utility-scale, distributed and SSEG installed capacity increased from less than 2GW to just under 10GW over the period. Rooftop solar installations increased from about 2.5GW to about 6GW. These trends were driven by increasing electricity prices, decreasing PV technology costs, tax incentives and financing mechanisms. According to industry newsletter African Energy, the authorities estimate there is an exploitable market in residential, commercial and industrial rooftops across provinces of about 10GW that can be unlocked by 2030. 2 Additionally, specialist industry database African Energy Live Data shows that ongrid solar capacity rose steadily throughout 2023 with the addition of hundreds of megawatts from the risk mitigation independent power producer procurement (RMIPPP) programme. The trend of large merchant
solar PV generation plants wheeling power through the grid and the start up of many small, embedded power projects also started in 2023. This trend tailed off during 2024. The impact on total ongrid installed capacity during 2023 was dampened by the removal from service and rehabilitation of three units at Kusile coal following a flue gas duct failure at Unit 1 in October 2022. This took out 2,400MW of capacity for most of the following year and plunged the country into stage-6 load shedding. They were temporarily fixed in late 2023 and permanent repairs started in July 2024 and will be completed in mid-2025. Meanwhile in June 2024, Kusile Coal unit V started operating, adding 800MW to the grid. So the general trend of gradually increasing capacity over the past two years masks a good deal of underlying fluctuations. The reconstructed 720MW Medupi Unit IV, which has been offline following a generator explosion on 9 August 2021, is expected to return to service later in 2025. The findings of Nedbank’s own Energy Tracker are that despite the improvement in Eskom’s EAF, electricity supply is still unstable as generation
2 South Africa: Rooftop solar has ‘10GW potential’ – blockages can be overcome, African Energy, 28 February 2023: www.africa-energy.com/news-centre/article/south-africa-rooftop-solar-has-10gw-potential-blockages-can-be
South Africa’s Energy Prospects
2
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