Grid-connected renewable capacity potential, 2024–2033 Based on responses to the 2024 grid survey
50,000
Hydro
45,880
45,000
Concentrated solar
40,000
Solar/wind
33,598
35,000
33,009
Battery
30,000
25,245
Solar PV/wind/battery
25,000
20,000
Wind/battery
15,000
Wind
10,158
8,949
10,000
6,707
6,576
Solar PV/battery
5,000
1,800
500
Solar PV
0
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
2032 2033
Source: National Transmission Company of South Africa, 2024 Grid Survey
capacity remains constrained. So excess demand is still being compensated for through load reductions, OCGT usage and imports. The evidence of continued energy insecurity is shown by the ongoing reliance on the compensatory load and very high levels of unplanned outages. The achievement of stable electricity supply requires a sustained improvement in generation capacity, particularly in renewable energy and less dependence on the compensatory load. But it is the next phase of on-grid private-sector funded renewable energy additions which have the potential to change South Africa’s electricity supply industry (ESI) beyond recognition, providing the necessary transmission infrastructure can be built in time. According to the results of the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA)’s 2024 Renewable Energy Grid Survey (SAREGS), 3 the total pipeline of potential renewable energy projects to 2032 amounted to about 172GW. The survey recorded that the 2024 pipeline was already nearly 9GW, increasing to 34GW in 2025 and 46GW in 2027.
The grid survey is not a forecast of what is likely to happen. If fully implemented the capacity recorded in responses related to nearly 500 projects would quadruple installed capacity from its current level. In fact, many of the projects contributing to these numbers may not secure a grid connection, reach financial close or even conclude a power purchase agreement (PPA). The figures do, nevertheless, show the expectation of what could be possible for privately-financed renewable power generation in South Africa. Pipeline analysis The March 2024 update to the government’s Energy Action Plan (EAP) 4 provides a more measured but also ambitious vision of the future. It projects the addition of 38GW of capacity to the national grid between 2024 and 2030 from various government procurement and private sector sources. The EAP update forecast that 3.9GW of the projected additions would be added in 2024, mainly from the private sector, SSEG, and REIPPP wind. The EAP targets a further 7.1GW of additions in 2025, with major contributions from the private
3 Renewable Energy Grid Survey (SAREGS), 2024, NTCSA: www.ntcsa.co.za/south-africa-renewable-energy-grid-and-survey. 4 Energy Action Plan, National Energy Crisis Committee: www.stateofthenation.gov.za/takechargesa/energy-action-plan.
3
South Africa’s Energy Prospects
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