THIS ISWHAT HAPPENS NEXT: THE END OF HONG KONG ASWE KNOW IT China can’t crack down on Hong Kong. It also can’t cave in to Hong Kong protestors’ demands. But this is what it can do: Let Hong Kong die on the vine. As I mentioned, Hong Kong matters far more to the rest of the world than it does to China. It’s less than a third of the population of Shanghai and wouldn’t even make it into a list of five of the biggest Chinese cities. Its stock market is a handy way to raise capital – but Chinese companies can go to London or New York if they can’t find funds on the increasingly dynamic domestic (non-Hong Kong) exchanges. But what China can do is let Hong Kong shoot itself in the foot. The increasing violence of a small group of radicalized protestors turned Hong Kong into an urban warzone for days. Most people I talked with in Hong Kong have an active Plan B. “We have a leave-now bag packed and ready,” one businessman told me. Almost everyone who has options is considering where else they might live if things get worse. Singapore is a popular option, and I talked with several people who were looking for a way to get EU citizenship. And that – the hollowing out of the vast diversity of people who comprise the magic uniqueness of Hong Kong – would be the end of Hong Kong as we know it. And if things continue as they are now, it’s only a matter of time.
100 people… in the U.S., it’s an incredible 120 per 100 people. Violence would have escalated a whole lot faster, and been much more fatal, in the gun-friendly U.S. than it has in Hong Kong.) According to the Economist , as of mid- November a total of about 6,000 rounds of tear gas had been fired by police in Hong Kong since the beginning of protests. That’s far fewer than used by police in a single day in France facing protestors in December 2018. While images of violence make for good copy, the reality is that what’s happened in Hong Kong is relatively restrained. Also, there’s a lot more at stake for China than just Hong Kong. How Beijing handles Hong Kong’s protests is being very closely watched by minorities throughout China. For example, the predominantly Muslim Uyghur region of Xinjiang, in northwestern China, have long suffered under Chinese repression. According to the U.S. government, more than a million minority Muslim Chinese are in what it calls “concentration camps” to reduce extremism. Let’s not forget Tibet, which for decades has pushed for greater autonomy. And then there’s Taiwan, which has been independent since 1950 and is viewed by China as a rebel region that will need to return to the fold. If China gives in, it may have a half dozen more serious Hong Kongs on its hands. For a government that prizes stability above all else, what’s happening in Hong Kong is poison.
American Consequences
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