adopted gas and hydrogen package also aims to achieve by allowing the removal of supply obligations and thus dissolving decades-long consumer protection. And production must in- crease significantly. Therefore, governments and gas companies may announce the closure of natural gas supply in areas where alternative sources are available within a reasonable period, typically 8 to 10 years. Closing the natural gas network in areas where col- lective heating, such as DH, is established would be the most secure way to develop a stable, affordable replacement. Fail- ing to plan for the closure of the natural gas network due to a lack of political will and good energy planning could result in a triple heating supply through DH, gas, and electricity (heat pumps), which would be suboptimal and the most expensive economic outcome. What’s next? The problem has been solved for right now, but only temporar- ily. In the long term, the gas market and prizes would depend on countries outside the EU, and the prizes will be vulnerable to political decisions far away. World market prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) will continue to determine the price of gas in Europe for many years to come, regardless of the quantities produced internally in the EU and the use of biogas. The gas market operates similarly to the electricity market, where the most expensive production sets the daily price, incentivizing energy efficiency and ensuring that those who produce most efficiently gain the greatest profit. In general, there will be significantly fewer customers to fi- nance the maintenance of the European natural gas network. Both in Denmark and Germany, DH is becoming increasingly popular and is replacing natural gas heating. In Denmark, the state-owned gas company, Evida, is changing its tariff system so that, in the future, it will consist of a much larger fixed pay- ment for all gas customers (as there are fewer consumers to cover the fixed cost of the gas companies), rather than being solely based on consumption. This new approach underscores the gas network’s challenges with a shrinking customer base. It may be the first of many steps toward a significantly more expensive user economy for households using natural gas as their heating source. In 2023, EU member states and the EU Parliament adopted a large climate package where petrol and diesel vehicles, gas boilers, and oil boilers face rising expenses. This is due to the expansion of the EU’s CO2 quota system in 2027. For gas boilers, the price is expected to increase by 440 euros per year for an average house. This will also help and in- spire households’ incentive to replace natural gas with alterna-
tives. In areas where DH is established, natural gas is replaced as home heating in up to 80% of the buildings.
Summary The new ambition for all cities with over 40,000 inhabitants to have heating planning is a good start. Areas must be investi- gated for their potential for DH. Organization, ownership, regu- lation, and legislation must provide the right framework for DH to be established and supplied with good, cheap, and green heat for a long time. The heating plans cannot, therefore, stand alone. The heat- ing supply must continue to be on the local political agenda, and companies, associations, and citizens must be mobilized so that the green transformation of the heating sector can be successful. Regardless of ownership, DH is a community, and good com- munities require unity and direction. The energy crisis has shown us that we can, and this spirit should live on for the next several years if we are to succeed in establishing green, safe, and cheap heating DH.
For further information please contact: Søren Magnussen, sma@danskfjernvarme.dk
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