Policy & Compliance
analysts, global container shipping pro fi tability is The container market is entering a challenging period which is predicted to see slowing demand growth, declining freight rates and looming overcapacity A global container market summary “ It is estimated that the were fears that European ports would have significant problems handling a potential sudden increase in activity. Up until the time of writing, a more gradual return was seen as the most likely and prudent scenario. Even under this cautious approach, analysts forecast that global container freight rates, including both spot and contract rates will fall by an average of 17% in 2026, following an 18% decline last year. It is estimated that about 60% of global container volumes are transported under long-term
A ccording to industry expected to fall sharply, with the sector barely remaining above breakeven in 2026. It is estimated that the combined profit of all container carriers worldwide will amount to around US$1 billion in 2026, a significant decline compared with previous years. At the peak of the pandemic- driven boom in 2022, profits reached a historic US$300 billion. By 2024 this figure had declined to approximately US$60 billion. In the years before the COVID-19 crisis, annual profits of around US$30 billion were considered normal. While final figures for 2025 have yet to be published, it has been noted that the container sector still benefited from strong market conditions last year. During 2025, global container throughput grew by more than 5%, surpassing 1 billion TEU for the first time in history. It is forecast that container demand growth in 2026
will be just 1.8% for the entire year, before stabilising at a more traditional rate of 2-3% in subsequent years. These projections do not yet factor in the potential impact of a renewed trade conflict between the EU and the US. How US trade policy will affect the market in 2026 is currently unclear. Suez Canal factor The other imponderable is what happens in the Suez Canal. A few weeks before writing this article there were significant signs that at least some major container lines were considering a phased return to the route. However, given the increasing tension between the US and Iran, the latter which supports the Houthis, the picture is becoming less clear. There have been significant concerns that a rapid and widespread return to the Suez route could trigger a sharp decline in container freight rates, particularly on the spot market. Also, there
combined pro fi t of all container carriers worldwide will amount to around US$1 billion in 2026, a signi fi cant decline compared with previous years
contracts, with the remaining 40% exposed to spot market volatility. Capacity growth in 2026 is expected to remain relatively limited at around 3%, due to lower ordering activity in 2023. However, shipping lines ordered heavily in 2024 and 2025. This is set to translate into capacity growth of between 6% and 9% in the period 2025-2029. Current predictions suggest that increases in supply capacity will outpace expected demand growth pushing prices down, which will favour purchasers of maritime freight transport. In addition, there is significant confusion regarding the implementation of decarbonisation
12 | March 2026
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