an election that could trump higher sales King County saw its largest September-to-October increase in sales in at least 11 years. Whether this momentum can be maintained is unknown with so much renewed uncertainty for the trajectory of inflation and interest rates.
5.99% and 6.78%, respectively, on November 14th. That’s roughly 70 basis points higher than one month prior. Should rates remain elevated, or move even higher, that would put the brakes on improving housing affordability conditions and be a headwind to higher home sales activity. On that note, sales in King County in October did show signs of improvement. There were 2,431 closed MLS sales last month, an increase of 27% month-over-month that was a stark contrast to typically flat sales between September and October. In fact, this was the largest September-to-October gain in data going back to 2013, seconded by a much smaller 14% month-over-month gain in October 2018. Relative to October 2023, sales were up 31% to mark the largest year-over-year sales gain of any month since June 2021. Despite all of that, the market has a long way to go before it’s back to more typical levels of activity. Sales were still 17% below the prior 10-year October average of 2,928. With so much renewed uncertainty on the trajectory of inflation and interest rates, closing that deficit could take longer than previously expected.
Donald Trump will become the 47th President of the United States after winning 312 electoral college seats and 50.1% of the popular vote in the November 5th presidential election. In addition to winning the White House, the Republican Party earned a majority in the Senate with 53 seats, and will hold on to its majority in the House with 218 seats. As a result, Republicans will have free reign to implement policy as they see fit, with potentially significant implications for the U.S. economy. Stock markets soared in the immediate aftermath of the election in anticipation of significant reductions in corporate taxes and regulation. The S&P 500 rose 2.5% on November 6th and pushed higher to a record close of 6,001 on November 11th before paring some of those gains in the days following. But while anticipated policy measures from a new administration may be a boon for corporate earnings, the implications for inflation would be less favorable. Trump’s campaign promise of a blanket 10-20% tariff on foreign imports (and even higher tariffs on China) would significantly increase the
cost of consumer goods. Mass deportations would disrupt already tight labor markets, and sweeping tax cuts would add to record high government deficits. All of that is inflationary. Of course, this is all contingent on what policies actually get implemented when the new administration is sworn into office in January. That is why Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had so little to say when responding to questions about the impact that Trump’s policies could have on inflation and policy decisions at the Fed. “The answer is not obvious until we see the actual policies,” Powell said. “I don’t want to speculate.” Others are speculating though. After the Fed cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50-4.75% on November 7th, economists are forecasting fewer interest rate cuts through 2025 and a higher terminal rate than what was expected mere months ago. As well, government bond yields have climbed significantly in the weeks leading up to and following the election, which has implications for mortgage rates. Rates for 15- and 30-year fixed mortgages settled at
Information and statistics derived from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Copyright © 2024 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of November 12, 2024. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E.
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