time to buy? expanding supply at an eight-year high Housing inventory in Greater Victoria grew in February, reaching a level not seen for the month since 2016. Even with greater options available to buyers though, overall conditions remained in sellers’ market territory.
maintaining it squarely in sellers’ market territory. (Note that an MOI of less than 5 reflects conditions more favourable to sellers; a 5-8 MOI reflects balanced conditions; and an MOI over 8 reflects a buyers’ market.) With March now upon us (yippee), and with it the green shoots of a spring market, the recent trends of increasing sales, new listings, and inventory are likely to continue for the foreseeable future. And with inflation now back inside the Bank of Canada’s target range of 1-3% (at 2.9% as of January), all eyes will be on the March 19th inflation data release, followed by the April 10th Bank of Canada rate announcement. If the Bank opts to hold its policy rate again at its next meeting, expect the trajectory of the market to continue as we’ve seen so far in 2024. If the Bank surprises the market and cuts, however, bet on the pace of activity picking up as spring rolls on.
After a challenging 2023, which was bogged down by generationally-high interest rates, activity has been increasing in Greater Victoria as buyers and sellers alike are beginning to re-engage with the residential real estate market—to a degree. The challenge for potential homebuyers? Not only are interest rates higher than they were a year ago, so too are home values across the region. On the positive side for buyers, however, is that the availability of homes expanded this past February to a level not seen for any prior February in almost a decade. To wit, there were 1,720 MLS listings available at the end of last month, which was 29% higher than in the same month last year, 13% above the long-run February average, and the most of any February since 2016. Further, inventory expanded between January and February to a greater degree (11%) than what is typical (7%).
One factor driving the expansion of inventory levels has been the inflow of new listings, with February’s 937 representing a 12% increase over January’s count (comparable to the typical seasonal increase of 11%). It was also 30% higher than in February 2023 and 8% above the past 10-year February average. As mentioned, sales increased last month, although the overall count was rather modest relative to history: while the 427 MLS sales in Greater Victoria in February was up by 29% from the previous month, they were 1.2% less than in February 2023 and 25% below the past-decade February average. In spite of these readings for February— that is, above-average inventory and below-average sales counts—the months-of-inventory (MOI) measure for the region declined to 4.0 last month,
Copyright © March 7, 2024 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of March 7, 2024. All data from the Victoria Real Estate Board & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information shouldtakestepsastherecipientmaydeemnecessarytoverifytheinformationpriortoplacinganyrelianceupontheinformation.Theinformationcontainedwithinthisreportshouldnotbeusedasanopinionofvalue,suchopinionsshouldandcanbeobtainedfromarennieand associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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