MARKET REPORT
Market Perspective The October report brought greater clarity to market fundamentals and reinforced a firming tone across the industry. At present, supply is clearly tighter than last year, and export demand continues to build momentum with shipments tracking ahead of prior-year levels. As we move through the remainder of Q4 and into early 2026, market sentiment points toward a stable-to-firm trajectory, with potential for further strength should India and other key destinations accelerate coverage. As the market transitions into a more disciplined and sustainable balance between supply and demand, confidence is returning to both sides of the trade. Stable fundamentals and consistent export performance provide a strong foundation for informed purchasing decisions and long-term value creation. CROP Crop receipts through October reached 1.7 million pounds, reflecting a 7.9% decline compared to the previous crop year, largely driven by a slower receipt pace. Overall crop receipts are lighter, driven by lower Nonpareil yields and overall turnouts (kernel weight as a share of hull, shell, and kernel). Given these factors and analyzing year-over-year orchard comparisons, overall crop size will challenge even the viability of the Subjective Estimate’s 2.8-billion-pound crop. Pollinizer receipts through December will inform overall crop size. In October, growers attempted to complete in-field harvest activities, but some were delayed by a strong weather system. The storm forced growers and hullers to adjust operations, focusing on incoming field deliveries versus running stockpiles. Higher reject levels have been observed in later-harvesting varieties; however, overall reject levels are lower than the 2023 and 2024 crop years. LandIQ will publish the 2025 Standing Acreage Final Estimate in November, providing insights into orchard removals, new plantings and bearing acres. This will inform future crop potential. Domestic: October shipments reached 48.2 million pounds, down 28.5% from the same period last year. The domestic market has now seen twelve consecutive months of softer demand, resulting in the market being down 21.2%. Corresponding commitments increased by just over 5% from last month with a decline from last year of 7.5%. Buyers have been assessing holiday projections and coverage through Q1 of 2026, waiting for a drop in pricing to determine when to step into the market, as there is ample demand to be covered for the forward ship periods. COMMITMENTS Total commitments currently stand at 561.5 million pounds, a 16.7% decrease from last year. New sales for the month totaled 261.8 million pounds with the domestic market layering in an additional 62.5 million pounds, while exports added an additional 199.3 million pounds of new coverage. In total, commitments for the domestic market now stand at 198.9 million pounds, and exports stand at 458.1 million pounds. Uncommitted inventory sits at 982.2 million pounds versus prior year 997.1 million pounds, down 1.5%.
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ALMOND FACTS
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