R ICHARD C LANCY
Introduction
2016 has so far been a challenging year for both economics and politics, and it looks set to get even more difficult.
Terrorist attacks in Paris last November and in Brussels this March killed over 160 people – the deadliest attacks on major Western European cities in recent memory. Sadly, events of this sort seem to be increasingly common; indeed at the time of writing Istanbul also faces a period of solemnity as it too suffers from the aftermath of an attack on an airport. The rise of so-called Islamic State continues to dominate popular media in the wake of these events. In addition, the murder of Jo Cox MP was truly a tragic story, the like of which has not been seen since the days of the IRA. However, the major news story of this year to date remains one of the British electorate’s choosing: on June 23rd the British public went to the polls to vote in a referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union. Despite reports suggesting that the campaign to remain in the EU still held a small lead prior to the polls opening, voters awoke the following morning to find that the reverse had happened: the Leave campaign had garnered 52% of the vote. The UK had voted to leave the European Union. In the days since the referendum, British economics and politics has received a severe wake-up call. David Cameron announced his resignation as Prime Minister declaring the need for ‘fresh leadership’ to lead the exit negotiations and invoke ‘Article 50’, triggering a leadership contest in which it seems Boris Johnson is the front-runner. Jeremy Corbyn still clings on defiantly, despite a 4 to 1 majority vote of no-confidence from within the Labour party. It looks unlikely he will last much longer.
Britain looks set to slip into recession, as it faces the consequences of downgraded credit-ratings, a catastrophic fall in the value of the pound (though at the time of writing it seems to be levelling out at £1:$1.32 – see chart), and uncertainty over firms’ employment situations, and what the terms of our EU divorce will be. Furthermore, it seems likely that whoever steps in at Number 10 will call a snap general election to provide them with a mandate for rule. It remains to be seen what happens over the coming weeks, months and years: we are now in unchartered territory. With the refugee crisis in Europe not showing signs of slowing, the prospect of Donald Trump in the White House, and all the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, there are certainly challenging times ahead. Who knows what I’ll be writing in a year’s time!
The 2016 Political Economy Review offers a selection of articles written by the best of this year’s Remove economists. I hope that you enjoy reading…
R ICHARD C LANCY / clancyrd@dulwich.org.uk
My thanks go to Kenza Wilks, Louie Murphy and Khalil Gbla for their hard work in producing this publication.
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