the rennie landscape - Q2 2019

rates

CONSUMER PRICE CHANGES: HIGHER HERE, BUT SLOWING One of the key variables the Bank of Canada tracks closely as it nudges interest rates

Compared to the fall of 2018, the national inflation rate has been slowing; here in Metro Vancouver, it has been too, though it remains elevated relative to our metro peers. The latest data show a 2.5% rate of inflation in April 2019, down from 3.2% one year ago, but still north of the sacred 2%-threshold. This is squarely on the back of increasing housing costs and gas prices. Keep a close eye on this figure moving forward, as it will reveal a lot about where short-term interest rates are likely to move.

upwards, downwards, or kicks the can down the road until the next time it meets—indeed, one of its mandates—is consumer price inflation and, more specifically, controlling the rate at which prices change. The target for the Bank is a 2% increase in year-over-year prices, including a one percentage-point buffer on either side (with the acceptable inflation range being 1-3%).

A LEADING INTEREST RATE INDICATOR ABATES

3.5%

3.2%

3.0%

2.5%

2.5%

2.4%

2.4%

2.5%

2.2%

2.1%

1.8%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

TORONTO

CALGARY

EDMONTON

VANCOUVER

Q   Q  ANNUAL AVERAGE

Q   Q 

SOURCE: STATISTICS CANADA

DATA: CHANGE IN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

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