demographics
01. demographics
International migration fuelling BC's population expansion at the end of 2018; interprovincial migration a drag.
SLOWER POPULATION GROWTH ON ALL FRONTS IN BC
It continues to be all demographic systems go here in British Columbia, with the province surpassing 5.02 million residents at the end of Q4 2018. Beneath this headline number, though, are some additional data points worthy of contemplation. First, the province added just under 4,000 people in Q4—the fewest in any single quarter since Q4 2010, when BC actually shed 1,349 people (on a net basis). While it’s true that the final three months of each year are typically associated with smaller increments of population growth, BC still averaged growth of just under 7,500 people in fourth quarters between 2010 and 2018. So, what’s going on? For starters, natural increase added only 727 people in Q4 2018 through a combination of fewer births (due to our below-replacement
fertility rate) and more deaths (due to the continued aging of a greater number of people into older, higher-mortality, age groups). Additionally, net interprovincial migration was negative for the second consecutive quarter (a loss of 316 people) after 21 straight quarters of net additions (more on this in the next section). Net international migration was also more muted, with BC having added only 3,569 people from other countries (down 85% from Q3 and 40% from Q4 2017). What does this all mean? Not much on its own, but should this trend of slower growth continue, impacts could be felt within the provincial workforce and, by extension, this could have implications for the ability of our economy to grow. For now, however, it’s something to keep an eye on.
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