Bayesian estimation of prevalence of paratuberculosis in da…

100

C.G. McAloon

et al.

/ Preventive Veterinary Medicine 128

(2016) 95–100

The

results of

the

sensitivity

analysis

(Table 4)

suggest priors.

that

the

Central Statistics Office

(CSO), 2015. Selected

livestock numbers

in December,

http://www.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=aaa06

(accessed

model was

reasonably

robust

to

the

selection

of

Varying primary

11.12.15.). Chiodini, R.J., Chamberlin, W.M., Sarosiek,

the

priors

by

up

to

50%

had

only

a modest

effect

on

the

J., McCallum, R.W., 2012. Crohn’s disease

of

interest. Overall,

the model was most

sensitive

to

the

outcome

and

the mycobacterioses: a quarter

century

later. Causation or

simple

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prior

for CWHP and diagnostic

test Se.

Whilst

conducting

this

research,

a previously (Branscum

reported method

considered

et

al., 2004).

This

for modelling CWHP was

method

utilised

a

combination

of

a

beta

distribution

and

gamma Beta(  ,

distribution

in

order

to

model

CWHP

with

the

form;

 (1

 )) where 

is

a

beta

distribution

and 

is

a

gamma

distri-

in

attempting

to use

this method

in

the present between- of

bution. However, study, we noted

that

the

low CWHP

and high degree

herd

variability

frequently resulting

pushed

the

parameters

of

this

prior

than

1.

The

beta

distribution

became

increasingly

less

clustered at 0when

increased variabilitywas this method would not be

introduced.We there-

fore

concluded

that

appropriate

for

the

present

study. A

single beta distribution was used

to model CWHP

which

combined

uncertainty

and

variability

associated with

this

variable.

5.

Conclusion

Paratuberculosis test records in 1039 herds betweenNovember 2013 andDecember 2014were used toproduce a Bayesian estimate of HTP in Irish dairy herds. The median poste- rior estimate for HTP (i.e. the probability of a randomly selected herd containing at least one truly positive animal), among dairy herds enrolled in the national Johne’s Disease Control Programme, was 0.28 (95% posterior probability interval; 0.23, 0.34). from99,101 animals

Acknowledgements

This

study was

carried

out

as

part

of

the the

ICONMAP multidis- Irish Department of

ciplinary

research

programme

funded

by

Food

and

the Marine.

The

authors wish

to

acknowl-

Agriculture,

edge

the

assistance

of Animal Health in providing data

Ireland

and

the

Irish

Cattle

Breeding Federation

for

the

study.

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