CLIMATE CHANGE
climate extremes. This network will facilitate the sharing of data, knowledge and strategies, enabling a more co-ordinated global response to climate‑related challenges. In addition to research, we will develop comprehensive training programmes and workshops aimed at equipping policymakers, urban planners and community leaders with the tools and knowledge necessary to implement adaptive strategies effectively. We hope that these training programmes will also be incorporated into a cross‑disciplinary curriculum between the university’s FGSE and HEC Lausanne faculties; something that would represent a highly innovative approach. These programme initiatives will focus on sustainable urban development, infrastructure resilience and disaster risk reduction. The centre is also committed to working with local communities to better understand their unique vulnerabilities and strengths. Through participatory research and community-based projects, we aim to co-develop strategies that are both scientifically sound and locally relevant. Ultimately, we envision a future where societies are better prepared to anticipate and adapt to climate extremes. Already, ECCE is working with insurance companies and public institutions, such as the city of Lausanne, to better predict the risk of damage that communities in different localities face. By leveraging collective expertise and fostering innovative research, we strive to build a more resilient world for future generations.
THE SCIENCE OF CLIMATE MODELLING
At its core, ECCE’s work revolves around modelling and this explains the involvement of statisticians alongside geophysicists. We develop physical simulation models, such as hydrological models for floods that simulate the movement and storage of water in various environments. Historical data, meanwhile, allows us to calculate probability figures for extreme climate events in specific locations. However, because the current climate is no longer representative of conditions from 50 or even 20 years ago, this data no longer reflects present realities. As a result, we need to incorporate additional variables into our statistical models, a task closely tied to the concept of non-stationarity, which presents a significant scientific challenge. To quantify economic losses caused directly or indirectly by damage from extreme climate events, we primarily combine physical models based on extreme value theory, followed by a financial model that translates findings into economic terms. Two important research axes of ECCE are weather forecasting and the probability of extreme climate events. For example, we can predict a significant increase in wildfires in Switzerland in the future, unprecedented in our country. These will also become much more frequent in Southern Europe. In the Mediterranean, we expect an increase in hurricanes – a new phenomenon now referred to as ‘medicanes’. Across Southern, Central and Northern Europe, we anticipate more frequent and intense periods of drought, interspersed with extreme rainfall. As recently seen in Valencia, flash floods can be devastating. Overall, we see a shift towards higher average temperatures, along with greater variability. This is closely connected to the fact that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, which leads to an increase in rainfall and snowfall. Consequently, this raises the risk of flooding, landslides and other related hazards.
Valérie Chavez is a professor at HEC Lausanne, University of Lausanne and a member of the Executive and Scientific Board of the Expertise Center for Climate Extremes (ECCE). Chavez leads research projects at the University of Lausanne that contribute to the ECCE’s multidisciplinary initiatives. She is also the co-author of Risk Revealed: Cautionary Tales, Understanding and Communication , published by Cambridge University Press
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Business Impact • ISSUE 1 • 2025
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