January 2020
Figure 6 shows the probability of success of each program. These are currently based on using NPV, but can be applied to any noneconomic variable. The defnition used here is the probability (PROB) of NPV > 0. Based on the values, (1 – PROB)% is the probability of failure.
IGURE 6. ECONOMIC PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS F
NPV
ROI
ROI PROJECT
RANK
PROJECT
RANK
PROJECT
RANK 1
1
SPQ-9B
1
SPQ-9B
SPQ-9B CCOPS RDDL
2
SM-2 BLK
2
RDDL
2 3 4
3
BMD
3
RDDL
4
SM-2 BLK
4
BMD
BMD
5
Weather
5
Weather
5
Weather
6
MH-60R
6
CCOPS
6
SM-2 BLK
7
CCOPS
7
MH-60R
7
NIFC-CA
8
CIWS-CEC
8
CIWS-CEC
8
SSDS
9
SSDS
9
SSDS
9
CIWS-CEC
10
NIFC-CA
10
NIFC-CA
10
MH-60R
93
Defense ARJ, January 2020, Vol. 27No. 1 : 60-107
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