January 2020
As seen in Figure 10, these fve portfolios are combined into a matrix that shows the count of GO decisions. Clearly, for a decision maker, the lowest hanging fruits would be to execute the programs starting with the highest count. For instance, Weather, BMD, and SM-2 BLKwould be considered the highest priority, as regardless of the point of view and stakeholder under consideration, these programs have always been chosen.
FIGURE 10. PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION 7 (COMBINED VIEW)
Conclusions and Recommendations The analytical methods illustrated in the case study apply stochastic, risk-based Monte Carlo simulations to generate tens of thousands to millions of scenarios and algorithmic portfolio optimizations by applying economic and noneconomic military values. The methods are objective, verifiable, replicable, and extensible and can be easily modified to incorporate additional constraints and limitations (e.g., manpower, force mix, minimum capability requirements, domain-specifc requirements, cross-domain needs, etc.).
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Defense ARJ, January 2020, Vol. 27No. 1 : 60-107
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