SAFETY
The Rule of Three: The Principle for Error Recognition and Critical Rethinking by Dan Orr , President, Dan Orr Consulting
I N COMPLEX SITUATIONS or in sports where the risk could potentially be significant, making mistakes is inevitable. Experienced professionals, such as diving in- structors and divemasters, know that the difference between a minor misstep and a catastrophic failure often hinges on recognizing errors early and responding with deliberate caution. This is especially relevant when you consider that, as diving professionals, we have a duty of care to not only keep ourselves safe but also those in our charge. Considering all
Mistakes rarely happen in isolation. Human error is often the result of a chain of events: small missteps compounding until a critical threshold is breached. Going beyond that critical threshold can change an enjoyable recreational scuba dive into something with a truly undesirable outcome. The “Rule of Three” acknowledges this cumulative effect. By the time three mistakes have occurred, you may be statistically more likely to make a fourth, and the risk of serious conse- quences increases significantly.
the things that are involved in preparing for a diving expedition, a dive charter or student evalua- tion dives, recognizing pre-dive errors or mistakes is absolutely crucial to everyone’s safety. Mistakes or errors, even minor ones can compound increasing
Stopping after three errors in- terrupts this escalating chain of events. It provides time and mental space to move from an automatic, possibly panicked response (known as "task fixa- tion") to deliberate, reflective thinking and appropriate action.
Mistakes or errors, even minor ones can compound the likelihood of a diving accident. Therefore, an area I believe is crucial in scuba diving safety is "The Rule of Three.”
the likelihood of a diving accident. Therefore, an area I believe is crucial in scuba diving safety is "The Rule of Three.” It is the simple, yet significant, practice of stopping and re- assessing when three mistakes are made or errors have occurred. This principle, rooted in the wisdom of experience and supported by cognitive science, serves as a vital checkpoint for both individual divers and dive teams. The ”Rule of Three” is such an important tool in diving safety and risk management that I added it to the book that my wife, Betty and I wrote, 101 Tips for Recreational Scuba Divers as Tip #16, “Dan Orr’s Rule of Three.” At its core, the rule states that if you make three errors, or encounter what could be considered as three warning signs, you should stop, take a deep breath and rethink what you are doing before proceeding. Though an important precept in scuba diving safety, where the risks associated with mistakes can certainly compromise safety for you and the people you dive with, the “Rule of Three” has broad application in many parts of our lives. In essence, it is like a self-imposed circuit breaker, a moment to pause, take stock of what you are doing and how you are doing it, and deliberately consider whether it is wise to continue, possibly change tactics, or abort the activity alto- gether.
This shift is crucial: when under stress, humans tend to double down, ignore warning signs, and push forward. The “Rule of Three” is a counterbalance, encouraging us to resist the urge to "chance the consequences" and, instead, prioritize safety and sound judgment. As a safety conscious diver, applying the “Rule of Three” in- volves keeping a mental tally of mistakes you make or warning signs you see in your preparation for a dive. These do not have to be huge or catastrophic mistakes. They can be as simple as a forgotten tool, misread instructions, or a nagging sense that something was missed and should have been con- sidered. The discipline of keeping track of small slips or missteps builds awareness and prevents rationalization ("Oh, it’s just a little thing; I’ll remember next time. . ."). After the third error, it’s wise to take a deliberate pause in what you are doing. This is not a weakness or admission of incompetence; rather, it is a mark of professionalism and true concern for your safety and the safety of others around you. The act of stopping disrupts the momentum of mistakes and reduces the chance of further errors. During the deliberate pause, it’s now time to ask yourself: What is causing these errors? Are conditions changing? Am I tired, distracted, or under time or peer pressure? Is there something about the dive, environment, or equipment that I
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