housing
FLEETING AVAILABILITY Include us in the group of market-watchers and commentators who, at the time, thought the rise in Metro Vancouver’s purpose-built rental market vacancy rate in 2020 was a blip on the radar. Remember, after hovering between 1-2% for years leading up to the pandemic, the region’s vacancy rate rose from 1.1% in 2019 to 2.6% in 2020— a more-than-doubling! We actually wrote a paper last year evaluating some of the potential reasons behind this, identifying record new supply and a pandemic that negatively impacted the precise demographic that demands rental housing (primarily younger people, including
students and workers in hospitality) as the primary culprits. Not surprisingly, then, we watched as Metro Vancouver’s rental vacancy rate snapped back to 1.2% near the end of 2021 as international students returned and our economy more fully reopened. With relatively strong demographic and economic tailwinds expected to influence this market over the coming few years (at least), the opportunity for investors to buy low, and for renters to enjoy some rent relief, may have passed us by.
GREATLY EXAGGERATED "REPORTS OF THE DEATH OF": THE RENTAL MARKET
8.0%
7.2% 6.6%
7.3%
6.0%
5.1% 5.0% 4.6%
4.9%
3.9%
3.8%
4.0%
2.7% 3.3% 3.4%
3.4% 3.0% 2.5%
3.1% 2.4%
2.6%
2.0%
1.7%
1.5%
1.2%
1.1%
0.0%
VANCOUVER
TORONTO
MONTRÉAL
OTTAWA
EDMONTON
CALGARY
WINNIPEG
QUÉBEC CITY
SOURCE: CMHC DATA: YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE IN PURPOSE-BUILT RENTAL APARTMENT VACANCY RATE, SELECTED CMA’S
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