economy
01. economy Labour markets across Canada have bounced back to where they resemble their pre-pandemic selves. Still, there’s room to grow.
WAKING UP AFTER A TWO-YEAR SLUMBER
The unemployment rate has, arguably, been the single most representative measure of how our economy has fared since the early days of the pandemic. At the very least, it has summed-up complex and changing economic and labour market dynamics at various points during the saga we have collectively endured since early-2020. For starters, regional unemployment rates across Canada in the lead-up to the pandemic were at, or near, all-time lows (in Metro Vancouver the unemployment rate was 4.4%—the lowest in the country at the time), reflecting continued employment growth against the backdrop of an aging population. Then we were hit by Covid-19, so we shut down huge swathes of our economy (ushering in the “Great Suppression”) and, predictably, Canadian unemployment rates shot skywards. In most cases, they reached effective all- time highs (“effective” because you’d have to go back to the Great Depression to find higher rates); in Metro Vancouver,
the share of unemployed persons in the labour force peaked at 13.3%. After many months of a steady tightening of labour markets as our economy has re-opened and normalized, unemployment rates are— finally—back at, or close to, where they were before the pandemic. In the case of Metro Vancouver, this means an unemployment rate of 5.4%, keeping the region on course for an unemployment rate close to 4.0% by the year’s end. Of course, it’s worth remembering that while the experience of the past two years (a softening of labour markets) was always going to be transitory to some degree, our population and labour force continued on its inexorable aging trajectory, with everyone getting one year older each year. Looking ahead, these same demographic forces will continue to push unemployment rates downward in Canada and across the developed world.
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