Understanding the potential effects of these cuts is difficult, however, as there remains substantial ambiguity as to how these changes will be implemented. For example, some states may not have sufficient funding to cover the costs passed onto them, and they could eliminate the program in their state entirely; others may need to reduce benefit amounts to cover the costs, or further limit eligibility. 17 While it is unclear how exactly these cuts will play out in New York City and State, Wimer and Gorzig (2026) 18 developed a new methodology to estimate the number of New York State residents likely to be pushed into poverty by OBBBA’s SNAP cuts that rely on the estimated cuts to the SNAP budget. The results documented here extend Wimer and Gorzig’s analysis to New York City, using state administrative data on SNAP participation and benefits both state- and citywide to estimate the number of New Yorkers likely to fall into poverty as a result of OBBBA’s cuts to SNAP. Using SNAP administrative data, we find that New York City makes up approximately 61% of the state’s total SNAP participation. Applying this share of SNAP participation to the New York State results published by Wimer and Gorzig (2026), we find that the OBBBA SNAP cuts are likely to push roughly 70,000 New York City residents into poverty each year between 2028 and 2034 (Table 1). Projected estimates of the number of New York City residents pushed into poverty by OBBBA SNAP cuts Table 1
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
New Yorkers pushed into poverty by OBBBA SNAP cuts
27,000 53,000 70,000 69,000 67,000 65,000 73,000 73,000 72,000
Source: Author’s calculations using estimates from Wimer and Gorzig, “How many New Yorkers will be pushed into poverty by federal cuts to the SNAP program?” and administrative SNAP participation data from New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance, “Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) Caseloads and Expenditures: Beginning 2002.” It is important to note that these results are limited to the impacts of OBBBA’s cuts to SNAP and do not include the law’s nearly $1 trillion cuts to Medicaid 19 nor future potential cuts to federal housing assistance programs. 20 Cuts to Medicaid will disproportionately affect SNAP recipients in New York City, as could cuts to federally-supported housing assistance programs. Figure 8 shows that more than 2 in 3 (67%) families receiving SNAP benefits include at least one adult covered by Medicaid, and nearly 1 in 3 (32%) receive a Section 8 voucher or reside in NYCHA public housing . Recent Poverty Tracker research 21 and other studies 22 suggest that SNAP recipients are likely to observe even more losses in their resources as a result of cuts to these programs, which will further diminish their ability to meet their basic needs and increase their risk of poverty. 17 Villa and Scott, “SNAP Changes will Upend State Budgets.” 18 Wimer and Gorzig, “How Many New Yorkers will be Pushed into Poverty by Federal Cuts to the SNAP Program? Estimates from a New Methodology in the Face of Policy Uncertainty.” 19 American Medical Association, “Changes to Medicaid, the ACA and Other Key Provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” Congressional Budget Office, “Public Law 119-21, to Provide for Reconciliation Pursuant to Title II of H. Con. Res. 14 Title VII, Finance, Subtitle B, Health, Chapter 1, Medicaid.” 20 National Low Income Housing Coalition, “President Trump Releases ‘Skinny’ Budget Request Foreshadowing Historic Cuts to HUD in Full FY26 Re- quest — Take Action!” 21 Koutavas, et al., “Spotlight on: Housing Affordability and the Threat of Cuts to Federal Housing Assistance Programs.” 22 Internicola, “How Federal Budget Changes Could Reshape The New York City Public Housing Authority.” Congressional Budget Office, “Public Law 119- 21, to Provide for Reconciliation Pursuant to Title II of H. Con. Res. 14 Title VII, Finance, Subtitle B, Health, Chapter 1, Medicaid.”
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SNAP RECIPIENTS IN NEW YORK CITY AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF FEDERAL CUTS TO SNAP
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