MWM_Shulman_8_28_23

US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS STILL NEAR A 50 YEAR LOW – SOFT LANDING STILL MORE LIKELY THAN A RECESSION Despite Federal Reserve tightening, the US unemployment rate is still extremely low @ 3.5% • Unemployment rates are among lowest US has experienced in 50+ years • Technology companies continue to announce 100,000+ layoffs o Most layoffs are coming at the expense of H1B foreign workers o H1B foreign worker layoffs do not appear in unemployment statistics o US has 80m baby boomers which have started to become eligible for retirement since 2012 o 4.3m are becoming eligible per year (5.8m workers are unemployed as a basis of comparison — 3.5%) o As more baby boomers retire, the unemployment rates will drop even lower o The Federal Reserve is worried about wage inflation — this could become a problem in the future as companies rehire tech o There may be pent up demand for retirees to leave work force o If we had more retirees this could drop appreciably more o Unemployment will likely stay low due to seniors leaving workforce (eventually)

• ETF Fund Flows in US Market

During the past week, US market is showing stronger interest in US Equities.