Expo City Dubai: a blueprint for smart, mixed-use planning
THE LONG VIEW STARTS NOW By 2040, global travel will be larger, more complex and more scrutinised than at any point in history. The World Economic Forum (WEF) forecasts tourism could contribute $16 trillion to global GDP by 2034, while Boston Consulting Group (BCG) projects leisure travel spending will triple to $15 trillion by 2040. At the same time, climate volatility, geopolitical tension and demographic transformation are forcing the industry to rethink its operating model. Growth is not in question. The trajectory of that growth is. International travel has more than trebled since 1995, far outpacing global GDP growth over the same period, according to Tourism Economics data. International trips are expected to exceed 2 billion annually by 2030 and surpass 3 billion by 2045. But scale alone will not determine success in 2040. The defining question is how Explosive growth, eastward economic power, regenerative economics and AI-driven mobility are converging, and the next 15 years will determine whether travel evolves intelligently or simply expands The 10 biggest travel trends taking travel to 2040
that growth is channelled, through cleaner mobility, smarter infrastructure, inclusive design and regenerative economics. Here are the macro trends taking travel to 2040, and who is already moving decisively. 1 DEMAND REDEFINED AS GROWTH MEETS PURPOSE The headline numbers are staggering. Global international trips could exceed 2.4 billion by 2040, according to Deloitte and Google, while leisure travel spending is projected to triple to $15 trillion (BCG). WEF estimates tourism could contribute $16 trillion
sustainability and wellbeing. Research shows travellers increasingly prioritise experiences over possessions, and destinations that offer authenticity and purpose are gaining traction. Expo City Dubai provides an early example of how infrastructure and intention can align, combining net-zero design, smart mobility and mixed-use planning within a visitor economy framework. By 2040, growth will favour destinations that integrate scale with substance. TOP TIP: Embed purpose into destination planning now – from urban design to product development – so scale and sustainability grow in parallel. 2 ASIA BECOMES THE GRAVITATIONAL CENTRE OF GLOBAL TRAVEL Google Think and Deloitte forecast that India’s outbound travel could grow fivefold by 2040, while DPI Research projects China’s outbound market will rise from $140 billion in 2024 to
to global GDP by the mid-2030s. From the GCC to Southeast Asia,
governments are investing billions in airports, resorts and transport networks to capture that growth. Yet expansion alone will not define success. Demand is shifting toward experiences with meaning – slower travel, cultural immersion and value-led choices around
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