Bhutan’s ‘High Value, Low Volume’ model uses visitor fees to fund environmental and social programmes
TOP TIP: Integrate decarbonisation pathways into long-term capital and fleet strategy now, not as separate ESG initiatives. 5 REGENERATION REPLACES MINIMUM-IMPACT SUSTAINABILITY The Intrepid Travel × Future Laboratory 2040 Report warns that without systemic change, destinations from the Maldives to Lapland could face serious ecological strain by 2040. Rising sea levels, biodiversity loss and extreme weather are no longer abstract threats; they are operational risks for tourism- dependent economies. At the same time, the global blue economy, valued at around $2.5 trillion and projected to double by 2030, underlines how closely tourism is tied to healthy marine and coastal ecosystems. For many destinations, reefs, beaches and waterfront infrastructure are core economic assets, making environmental stewardship a commercial necessity. Examples of regeneration are already visible. Costa Rica continues to channel tourism revenue into conservation and protected areas. Bhutan’s ‘High Value, Low Volume’ model uses visitor fees to fund environmental and social programmes. In parts of the Caribbean, reef restoration levies are being introduced to support coral recovery and climate adaptation. By 2040, regenerative performance is likely to move from voluntary commitment to operating requirement. Governments and investors may increasingly expect tourism businesses to demonstrate measurable environmental and local economic impact, meaning regeneration is central to long-term competitiveness. TOP TIP: Implement measurable environmental and local economic impact metrics ahead of regulatory mandates. 6 LEISURE BECOMES MODULAR AND TRANSFORMATIVE BCG forecasts that $12 trillion of the projected $15 trillion global leisure spend in 2040 will come from domestic and regional travel, underscoring how proximity and flexibility will matter as much as long-haul aspiration. At the same time, global leisure demand is expanding into new formats. Slow travel, micro-adventures and extended-stay “work from anywhere” trips are gaining traction, reflecting a desire to blend travel with lifestyle rather than treat it as a short escape. Wellness tourism alone was valued at more than $894 billion in 2024
AI-powered planners are enabling travellers to “test” destinations and customise journeys before departure. By 2040, booking may feel less like selecting a package and more like designing a pathway; one that integrates leisure, wellbeing, learning and even life transitions. Travel will increasingly be framed around renewal and personal development. TOP TIP: Design itineraries that enable travellers to customise pace, purpose and depth of engagement. 7 LUXURY PIVOTS FROM STATUS TO SIGNIFICANCE Luxury travel by 2040 will prioritise impact, privacy and personal meaning over overt displays of opulence. Experiential luxury is already outpacing goods-based luxury growth, and affluent travellers are increasingly seeking journeys that combine exclusivity with environmental or cultural contribution. Resorts are investing in carbon-conscious architecture, regenerative landscaping and local supply chains, while luxury safari operators and expedition cruise lines are partnering with conservation scientists to integrate research into guest experiences. Ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) travellers will push further into frontier territories:
Osaka uses multilingual AI systems to maintain service continuity during disruption
(Global Wellness Institute), and growth in purpose-led retreats, skill-building journeys and nature immersion signals a broader pivot toward experiential depth. Expedition cruising, for example, is one of the fastest-growing cruise segments, while community-based tourism initiatives across Costa Rica, Slovenia and parts of Southeast Asia are attracting travellers seeking cultural exchange over checklist sightseeing. Technology will accelerate this shift. Virtual reality previews, immersive content and
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