L eisure travel is the backbone of the global tourism sector, accounting for around 80% of spend and nearly 70% of inter- national arrivals, according to Oxford Economics. By 2040, its econom- ic weight will be substantially greater. Boston Consulting Group (BCG) forecasts that leisure travel will expand from approximately $5 trillion in 2024 to $15 trillion by 2040. This threefold increase will be underpinned by rising incomes in emerging markets, a generational prioritisation of experiences over possessions, the steady expansion of domestic and regional travel, and rapid advances in digital tools that increase conversion and spending. At a broader level, the global travel and tourism market is projected to reach $16 trillion by 2034, generating an estimated 30 billion tourist trips worldwide, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF). Leisure travel will account for the majority of that activity. WHERE GROWTH WILL ORIGINATE BCG’s analysis makes clear the centre of gravity in leisure travel is shifting towards Asia and the Middle East. While North America and Europe remain significant in absolute value, the fastest growth through 2040 will come from emerging markets. India and China together are expected to account for more than 25% of all outbound international travel by 2030. China is forecast to lead global outbound growth over the remainder of the decade, reclaiming its position as the world’s largest outbound market. India, supported by a rapidly expanding middle class, improving connectivity and rising passport penetration, is set to become one of the most influential outbound engines globally. Beyond these two giants, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore are projected to record some of the strongest growth compared with 2019 levels by 2030, while the US and Taiwan are expected to be among the slower performers in relative recovery terms. The fastest-growing tourism economies to 2034 are concentrated in Asia and the Middle East, reflecting strong GDP growth, demographic momentum and aspirational travel behaviour.
BCG also highlights that much of the incremental demand will come from domestic and regional travel, expected to pull in $11.7 trillion (11 billion overnights) and $2 trillion (3 billion plus overnights) respectively by 2040. International leisure travel, meanwhile, will hit the $1.4 trillion mark, rising from almost 2 billion overnights in 2024 to 5 billion by that date. In emerging economies, domestic tourism often acts as the entry point for first-time travellers before progression to regional and long-haul trips. Improved aviation networks, rail infrastructure and streamlined visa systems are accelerating short-haul corridors across Asia and the GCC. By 2040, domestic and regional trips will account for the lion’s share of overall leisure growth, particularly in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. WHO WILL BE TRAVELLING Millennials and Gen Z will dominate discretionary leisure spending over the next 14 years, the BCG research reveals. These cohorts prioritise authenticity, flexibility, digital ease and experiences with social and cultural value. At the same time, affluent travellers across all age groups are driving disproportionate value growth, with premium and luxury leisure forecast to outpace mass segments. Ageing populations in Europe and parts of East Asia will increase the number of “silver travellers” seeking longer stays, comfort and enrichment-based travel. Multigenerational trips, already common across Asia and the GCC, are expected to expand further as families allocate budgets to shared experiences, with travellers from countries including Vietnam, India, Mexico and Saudi Arabia leading the way. First-time outbound travel will rocket too, led by rising middle classes across India, Southeast Asia and the Middle East and generating demand for both regional destinations and aspirational long-haul experiences. WHY THEY WILL TRAVEL Consumer spending patterns increasingly favour experiences over goods. Travel consistently ranks among the top discretionary priorities for middle- and upper-income households. Even during economic uncertainty, many travellers
Growth in multi-gener- ational travel will continue to surge
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