worries about the negative impacts of COVID-19. With that as context, the Manufacturers’Outlook Sur- vey for the fourth quarter of 2020 was conducted from Nov. 19 to Dec. 3, and 74.2 percent of respondents were either somewhat or very positive about the out- look for their company.This was roughly equivalent to the historical average of 74.4 percent, and it represent- ed notable improvement after the 33.9 percent and 66.0 percent readings in the second and third quarters, respectively.The second quarter survey reported activ- ity that was the worst since the Great Recession. On average in 2020, 62.4 percent of manufacturers were positive in their outlook, down from the 92.4 percent and 76.2 percent averages seen in 2018 and 2019, re- spectively, and the lowest annual average since 2009. The NAM Manufacturing Outlook Index measured 49.9 in the fourth quarter, up from 44.5 in the third quarter.This is consistent with the current outlook be- ing just marginally shy of the historical average. In the latest data, 42.1 percent of manufacturers re- port higher production in the fourth quarter than in the third, with 31.3 percent predicting output will be lower and 25.8 percent feeling there will be no change. At the same time, 57.1 percent and 55.4 percent of those completing the survey anticipate no change in hiring and capital spending in the fourth quarter, re- spectively,with 26.3 percent and 22.3 percent expect- ing increased employment and investment. Respondents were asked when they expect rev- enues to return to pre-pandemic levels. Just over 29 percent said that their revenues will have recovered either before or during the fourth quarter, with 38.3 percent expecting their revenues to return to normal at some point in 2021.As such, 67.7 percent of manu- facturers completing this survey anticipate that their revenues will be back to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021, with 86.2 percent saying the same thing by the end of 2022. After two quarters with weaker domestic demand top- ping the list of primary business challenges, the inabil- ity to attract and retain talent led the pack once again in the fourth quarter. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, workforce challenges had been the primary concern for 10 consecutive quarters, and its reemergence at the top of this list reflects the structural skills mismatches that many manufacturers face regarding employment. The weaker domestic economy fell to second place, with 50.4 percent. Other top worries included rising health care and insurance costs (50.2 percent) and increased raw material costs (43.2 percent). Manufacturers were asked about their policy prior- ities for the incoming Biden administration and the Manufacturing Report (Cont’d from Page 1)
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