finding balance in Greater Victoria’s housing market The emergence of counter-seasonal trends in both sales and listings has yielded conditions not seen in almost 4 years and that, in turn, should alleviate some of the upward pressure on the region’s rising home prices.
each balanced, with MOIs of 6.8 and 5.6, respectively, while conditions continued to favour sellers within the condo segment (per its MOI of 4.8). With the macroeconomic landscape driving (or should we say, stalling) housing market activity in Greater Victoria, expect these counter-seasonal trends to continue through November and December. Indeed, while both home sales and listings typically decline at the end of the year—as would-be buyers and sellers become more focused on the holidays than on real estate—we’re likely to see steeper-than-usual declines in transaction counts and a contraction in inventory that’s less than we’re used to. As a result, balanced conditions—relatively rare until last month—should prevail for some months ahead and, in turn, alleviate some of the ongoing upward pressure on home prices that has come to characterize this market.
The overall dynamics driving Greater Victoria’s housing market remained much the same in October as in September: high interest rates designed to quash high inflation have put the brakes on market activity (or, more specifically, on buying activity). As a result, last month looked a lot more like September than it did a more typical October. When it comes to transaction counts, the typical seasonal pattern is one of a small September-to-October increase in MLS sales (of 1.2%); in contrast to this, last month’s sales count totalled 363—a 21% drop from September. This, in turn, marked not only the fifth consecutive monthly decline, but it was 21% below the past-decade October average, and 20% lower than last year’s October sales count. Similarly, inventory didn’t follow its typical path into October, which would have seen
total listings shrink by 8% from September; instead, the 2,141 homes available for purchase at the end of October represented a 1.0% increase over September. This was the tenth consecutive monthly increase in supply, putting total listings at their highest level in any month since September 2019. October’s inventory was also 27% higher than 12 months ago and 9% above the past 10-year October average. With falling sales and rising listings, the months-of-inventory (MOI) metric expanded in October to 5.9, denoting an overall balanced market (an MOI of less than 5 reflects conditions more favourable to sellers; 5-8 MOI reflects balanced conditions; and an MOI over 8 reflects a buyers’ market). Of significant note is that October was the first month since April 2020 that Greater Victoria’s housing market has been balanced. On a home-type basis, the detached and townhome segments were
Copyright © 2023 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of November3, 2023. All data from the Victoria Real Estate Board & Rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information shouldtakestepsastherecipientmaydeemnecessarytoverifytheinformationpriortoplacinganyrelianceupontheinformation.Theinformationcontainedwithinthisreportshouldnotbeusedasanopinionofvalue,suchopinionsshouldandcanbeobtainedfromarennieand associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online