Brendon Kearney's 2023 San Francisco real estate market update.
BRENDON KEARNEY REAL ESTATE San Francisco 2023 Year-in-Review MARKET UPDATE
LETTER FROM BRENDON
Dear friends & neighbors,
I hope this finds you well and getting settled into 2024! The older I get, the more I become aware of how fast time flies. It seems like I was just putting the final touches on last year’s Market Update. The great news is that as time is flying by I am having some of the best years of my life. With an amazing community of friends, neighbors, and family I am still amazed at the wonders of San Francisco and my near 30 years in this spectacular city. San Francisco continues to grow and evolve – and we are in a bit of an evolutionary stage. The national news pumped a continuous amount of “Doom Loop” news for the City by the Bay in 2023. It’s true, we have a lot of work to do to bring San Francisco back to being one of the world’s most popular tourist destinations and the groundswell of growth and innovation. The economic cycles seem to get shorter and shorter with higher highs and lower lows. Not to worry, San Francisco is one of the world’s greatest cities and will be on top again soon! A reminder to my San Francisco voters – please pay attention to local politics. With the amount of noise we have today it is easy to become apathetic to the political landscape right here. We need to truly band together to ensure that we make the most of the 2024 election cycle. The status quo and apathy have left many politicians in office who do not have the fortitude or strength to make the hard decisions. We have to elect the people who will work to help shape the San Francisco of the future. We need to elect the people who will make San Francisco a truly world-class destination again. Get out there, make some noise – and contribute to the campaigns of our future leaders! As for real estate, things are looking up. Interest rates are ever so slowly coming down, inflation just fell to under 3% and the stock market is going strong. If these 3 things keep heading in the right direction we’ll be back to normal in no time. In the meantime, reach out to me if you have any questions or want to review the performance of your home’s equity position. It’s all about the equity!
I’m looking forward to an amazing 2024! Here’s to a beautiful year with love, happiness, and success!
All the best,
Brendon
“This is the third time we have worked with Brendon on a real estate transaction because HE’S THAT GOOD! Brendon helped us sell a home at the beginning of the pandemic when all the rules were changing. He tried innovative new things and course-corrected as needed resulting in a fast and high-value offer. He’s not afraid to ask the awkward question and protect his client’s interests. We are sorry to lose him as our Realtor across the country, but count him as a friend and would recommend him 100%.”
STEPH & JEFF.
San Francisco Real Estate Market Recap
The 2023 market started strong after an acute decline in market activity occurring in the second half of 2022. The first quarter of 2023 saw open house traffic, number of offers, overbidding and absorption, all with major improvement. The biggest wildcard remained interest rates and exactly how high the Fed would take measures to counteract rising inflation. Peaking in October, the high cost of money caused a real thorn for both buyers and sellers for the year. This proved to be a very challenging and difficult market to predict and the final numbers showed exactly how these factors can impact the real estate market. My advice throughout the year was to stay focused on the equity. If you needed the equity from the home and could put the money to better use in another part of your life, then it was okay to sell. If not, there was no need to dangle your toes in the 2023 market. With a high number of unsold homes, it seems a lot of people were punished for “testing the market”. My clients were able to avoid the pitfalls of a depressed market with my experience through the Great Recession. A lot of those tools came back into play last year. In the last two months of 2023, the average, weekly, 30-year mortgage interest rate dropped from 7.79% to 6.61%. With the fallen inflation this past year, the Fed is widely expected to begin dropping its benchmark rate, most likely in multiple steps, in 2024. The consensus forecast among analysts is for further declines in mortgage interest rates. A reminder that when rates go up, they go up fast! And when rates come down, they come down very, very, slowly. Don’t expect any big changes this year. I would like to see rates get under 6% by then end of 2024 with rates in the mid 5’s in early 2025. After its end-of-year rally, the S&P index was up 25% and the NASDAQ up 45% in 2023 (though the financial markets have bounded around quite a bit in early 2024). This plays a major role in Bay Area household wealth and if the trend continues up, will allow a lot of anxious home buyers and sellers have the confidence to start making moves again. On an annual basis, the 2023 median homes sale price was down 13% from 2022, while on a quarterly basis, the Q4 price was down less than 1 percent year-over-year, Total sales volume plunged, while many perspective sellers, the motivation to move was reduced by the mortgage lock-in effect. With interest rates falling, media coverage turning more positive, AI companies expanding in downtown, and economic conditions and consumer confidence rebounding, the direction is trending positive for San Francisco real estate.
Let’s see what 2024 has in store for us.
Note: As often seen in recent years, the complex economic, political, and social factors affecting interest rates, inflation, consumer confidence, and housing, and financial markets can change quickly in unexpected ways. Forecast and predictions are best guesses based on the interpretations of recent economic data and trends.
Anticipating the Future Predictions for 2024
NAVIGATING OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
As San Francisco steps into 2024, the real estate market is poised for a fascinating journey. We are already beginning to see increased buyer activity with homes receiving multiple offers and, frequently, all-cash transactions closing within a week or two of acceptance. We expect to continue to see increased activity and, ideally, price improvements as interest rates trend down. The Fed appears to ready to hold the benchmark interest rate flat and we are optimistic that we’ll see a few reductions in rates over the course of the year Every reduction will lead to marked improvement in the San Francisco market as buyers and sellers begin to make moves as their “mortgage lock-in” handcuffs become unshackled and interest rates become more affordable. The dynamics of the previous year have set the stage for a market that continues to evolve, responding to economic shifts, societal changes, and ongoing urban transformation. As economic conditions continue to improve, we predict a positive market outlook for the year. Navigating the market this year will require strategic decision-making early in the process. The year will prove to be a dynamic landscape full of opportunities and challenges for both buyers and sellers. Collaborative efforts among professionals in the real estate services field are essential to create and execute tailored strategies that ensure optimal outcomes amidst the complexities of the market. Tailored approaches, customized to my individual clients’ financial goals, are essential for success. In this environment, timing and personalized solutions play a crucial role in effectively navigating the ever-evolving real estate landscape. “EARLY ACTIVITY FOR 2024 SUGGESTS A MUCH IMPROVED MARKET WITH STRONG BUYER DEMAND FOR HOMES IN SAN FRANCISCO”
“Brendon is an outstanding agent. He shepherded us through a very complicated sale with difficult personalities but always kept his cool and professionalism, clearly explained every step of the process, and brought us to a successful resolution. We highly recommend Brendon.
Gabriel B. | Seller | Nob Hill
2023 Notable Sales by Brendon Kearne
147 R ipley S treet | B ernal H eights 5 BD 5 BA 3334 SF $3,400,000
1520 T aylor S t ., N o . 602 | N ob H ill 3 BD 2.5 BA 2400 SF $1,705,000
359 F air O aks S treet | N oe V alley 3 BD 2 BA 1500 SF $1,725,000
1024 O ak S treet | H ayes V alley 2 BD 1 BA 1274 SF $1,440,000
279B C linton P ark | M ission D olores 1 BD 1 BA 557 SF $665,000
Brendon Kearney is proud to be included in the Top 100 Agents in San Francisco for 2023
1100 B roderick S treet | A nza V ista 5 BD 5 BA 4,310 SF $3,575,000
646 40 th A venue | O uter R ichmond 3 BD 2 BA 1535 SF $1,322,202
1963 M c A llister S t ., N o . 2 | N o P a 2 BD 2 BA 1261 SF $1,385,000
206 H arvard S treet | P ortola 3 BD 3 BA 2066 SF $1,340,000
1116 P owhattan A venue | B ernal H eights 2 BD 2 BA 1047 SF $875,000
2023 San Francisco Residential Sales Recap YEAR-OVER-YEAR 2022-2023
2023 was a very interesting year in the world of residential real estate. The harsh reality of interest rate climbing to 8% had a tremendous impact on the volume of real estate transactions. As buyer affordability became more and more untenable, Sellers desire to sell flattened. The year of real estate can be defined as 3 of the 5 D’s of real estate: Death, Divorce, & Diapers. Diamonds and downsizing were largely put on hold as interest rates kept rising. The majority of advice I gave my clients was to only sell if you needed the equity out of the house. If the equity was not better served somewhere else, then the best path was to hold for us to see where the market headed. Unfortunately, my advice also included selling if your only other option was to rent the home. Renting property in San Francisco can be very complicated and comes with a lot of risk.
2022 v. 2023
-27.1% Decrease in total Sales Volume ($3.691B)
-12.7% Decrease in Median
+31.8% Increase in Days on Market (DOM 29)(DOM 29) -27.1% Decrease in the to- tal Sales Volume (in $) ($3.691B)
Sale Price ($1,550M)
-9.5% Decrease in Avg. $ Per Square Foot: ($989.82)
-6.0% Decrease in the Avg. List Price to Sale Price Ratio (103.4%)
Median Price (Sold)
Unit Sold
Median Price (Sold)
2023
% Chg
2023
% Chg 2023 % Chg
Dist. 1
154
-23.0%
$2,025
-14.8% 30 42.9%
Dist. 2 Dist. 3 Dist. 4 Dist. 5 Dist. 6 Dist. 7 Dist. 8 Dist. 9 Dist. 10
329 134 259 226
-25.4% -16.3% -18.0% -31.3% -21.4%
$1,501 $1,240 $1,731 $2,355 $2,600 $4,995 $3,950 $1,675 $1,100
-13.3% 24 26.3%
-12.9%
28
16.7%
-13.4% 26 30.0% -12.3% 30 50.0%
33 83
-10.6% 47
62.1% 54.5% 31.3% 31.8%
-1.2%
6.9%
51
13
-55.2% -19.4% -17.2%
33.0% -9.0%
63 29
191 381
-9.1%
30 20.0%
Brendon has gift for turning a stressful process into a fun journey. He is a masterful marketing professional, attending to details that are subtle, but difference-makers. He is quick to come up with viable solutions for complicated issues that work well for all. I thoroughly enjoyed working with Brendon!
Jean | Seller | Castro / Eureka Valley
Thanks for all of your hard work and persistent marketing and promoting of my home! It absolutely paid off!!!
David | Seller | Castro / Eureka Valley
Single Family Home Sales
District 1: Inner Richmond, Central Richmond, Outer Richmond, Jordan Park /Laurel Heights, Presidio, Lake Street, Sea Cliff, Loan Mountain
District 2: Golden Gate Heights, Outer Parkside, Outer Sunset, Parkside, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Inner Parkside
District 3: Lake Shore, Merced Heights, Merced Manor, Stonestown, Lakeside, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview, Pine Lake Park
District 4: Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown Terrace, Saint Francis Wood, Sherwood Forest, Mount Davidson Manor, Westwood Highlands, Westwood Park, Sunnyside, West Portal, Monterey Heights District 5: Glen Park, Noe Valley, Eureka Valley / Dolores Heights, Mission Dolores, Duboce Triangle, Buena Vista Park, Corona Heights, Cole Valley / Parnassus Heights, Clarendon Heights, Ashbury Terrace, Haight Ashbury, Twin Peaks District 6: Anza Vista, Hayes Valley, Alamo Square, Lower Pacific Heights, Western Addition, North Panhandle, District 7: Pacific Heights, Marina, Cow Hollow, Presidio Heights
District 8: Downtown, Nob Hill, Russian Hill, Tenderloin, Financial District / Barbary Coast, North Waterfront, Van Ness / Civic Center, Telegraph Hill, North Beach
District 9: South of Market, South Beach, Yerba Buena, Mission Bay, Dogpatch / Central Waterfront, Bernal Heights, Potrero Hill, Inner Mission
District 10: Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Silver Terrace, Bayview, Outer Mission, Visitation Valley, Portola, Mission Terrace, Hunter’s Point, Bayview Heights, Candlestick, Little Hollywood
2023 Single Family Home Market Summary
Despite the poor performance in 2023, Single Family homes remain the most resilient housing product to own. A lot of the declines we saw last year stem from additional fami- lies moving out of the city and higher price points for single family homes. Continuing the trend from pandemic times, a single-family home is still a much more desirable housing product. The lack of shared living spaces, autonomy and privacy continued to drive de- mand. If you purchased in the last 15 years you are likely sitting on a 3% interest rate – any increase is significant, but a 5% increase can be paralyzing.
2022 v. 2023
-27.1% Decrease in total Condominium ales volume ($3.691B)
-12.7% Decrease in total Condominium ales volume ($3.691B) -6.0% The average list price to sale price remained static (103.4%))
+31.8% Decrease in total Condominium ales volume ($3.691B) -27.1% The number of units sold decreased. (1,822)
-9.5% Decrease in total Ales volume ($3.691B)
Median Price (Sold)
Unit Sold
Median Price (Sold)
2023
% Chg
2023
% Chg 2023 % Chg
Dist. 1
154
-23.0%
$2,025
-14.8% 30 42.9%
Dist. 2 Dist. 3 Dist. 4 Dist. 5 Dist. 6 Dist. 7 Dist. 8 Dist. 9 Dist. 10
329 134 259 226
-25.4% -16.3% -18.0% -31.3% -21.4%
$1,501 $1,240 $1,731 $2,355 $2,600 $4,995 $3,950 $1,675 $1,100
-13.3% 24 26.3%
-12.9%
28
16.7%
-13.4% 26 30.0% -12.3% 30 50.0%
33 83
-10.6% 47
62.1% 54.5% 31.3% 31.8%
-1.2%
6.9%
51
13
-55.2% -19.4% -17.2%
33.0% -9.0%
63 29
191 381
-9.1%
30 20.0%
2023 Condominium Market Summary C ondominium , TIC, L oft & S tock C ooperative
A sharp decline in the number of condominium units sold in 2023 helped to stave off a bigger price drop. The return to condominium living has been greatly stymied by the strong desire to continue to work from home. New developments have been put on hold as inventory of brand new condominium sales remains stagnant. The strongest condo- minium sector continues to be that of the 2 – 3 unit buildings in the central neighbor- hoods and those in close proximity to a wide array of amenities.
2022 v. 2023
-36.4% Decrease in total Condominium ales volume ($2.569B)
-8.5% Decrease in the median
+33.3% Increase in the average days on market. (56 DOM)
sale price: ($1,093M)
-8.8% Decrease in the average price per square foot ($995.15/sq. ft.)
0% The average list wwwprice to sale price remained static (103.4%)
-30.3% The number of units sold decreased. (2,077)
Condo, TLC, Loft, Coop
Unit Sold
Median Sale Price Average DOM
District Dist. 1 Dist. 2 Dist. 3 Dist. 4 Dist. 5 Dist. 6 Dist. 7 Dist. 8 Dist. 9 Dist. 10
2023 % Chg 2023 % Chg 2023 % Chg
12
-24.1% $1,250
-6.6% 35 34.6%
43 22.9% $950 20 -44.4% $739 40 -24.5% $635 370 -28.3% $1,295 218 -37.4% $1,190
-27.9% 37 -3.2% 31
8.8%
-8.8%
-25.8% 63 50.0% -14.1% 42 61.5%
-2.9% 47
23.7%
210
-28.1% $1,513
-5.8% 43 19.4%
375 -25.1% $971
-8.1% 67
39.6%
638
-34.0% $950 45.6% $765
-13.6% 69 30.2% -0.5% 96 28.0%
43
Guiding you home with the Compass Advantage
NOW, MORE THAN EVER, THE EXPERTISE OF A REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONAL MATTERS IN THE SALE OF YOUR HOME
The Power of The #1 Brokerage
INVESTING BILLIONS IN TECH TO SELL YOUR HOME At Compass, the technology of the future is already changing outcomes today. Not only has the company invested almost $1.5B dollars in tech over a 10-year period¹, but we continue to spend more than $100M annually on research and development² to help our agents make buying or selling easier for you. A MARKETING STRATEGY FOR EVERY HOME As part of Compass, I have access to a dedicated in-house marketing and design agency of over 300 experts nationwide, making it more effective than ever before to reach your buyer how, when, and where it counts most. A 28K+ NETWORK OF TOP AGENTS NATIONWIDE In 2023, 11% of Compass transactions resulted directly from referrals to Compass³, demonstrating the power and reach of our nationwide network—a network that arms us with privileged access to the homes you’ve been waiting to find and the prospects ready to buy.
#1 Ranke d Residential Brokerage In the U.S.
$2 30B 2022 Gross Transaction Value
Don’t Squander Your First Impression
All buyers preview homes online before making time to visit in person, and professional staging is what puts your home on their must-see list.
SPARK THEIR IMAGINATION When buyers evaluate a home, they seek a space they can imagine themselves living in. A few simple changes can make your home dramatically more appealing.
That’s how long you have to make an impression before buyers scroll to the next listing.
7 seconds
The Power of Compass Concierge & Home Staging
246 CASELLI AVENUE The seller wanted to occupy the home during the marketing of the home to save money on housing cost and home prep / staging. We determined that the homes value would greatly improve if they vacated the home. The estimated home price without staging was estimated to be $925,000 with an anticipated final sale price of $1,150,000 after staging (An 11:1 ROI). The seller spent just under $18,000 on home prep. He received 6 offers and closed escrow with a final sale price of $1,325,00. A $400,000 value and more than doubling the ROI.
Before
7 Days On Market
1.325 M Sale Price
28% Return Of Investment
After
121% Over Asking
17,151 Investment Cost
About Brendon
I’ve been selling homes in San Francisco for over 20 years, and living here even longer. I came here on a stopover after leaving a job in Hong Kong, and I was so enthralled that I simply never left. All these years later, I know this city inside and out. Its culture and geography are full of complexities—and so is its real estate market. I’ll guide you through the maze and make the home-selling process feel seamless. I specialize in single-family homes and condominiums in the heart of San Francisco. By focusing on this small part of the Bay Area market, I’ve developed the connections, insight, and strategy to truly master it. I know what’s going on in the community, who to trust, what homes are really worth, and what it takes to get the best possible deal— whether you’re buying or selling.
WITH ME, YOU’LL
• Always know what to expect—with a personalized, step-by-step plan
• Reach the best net outcome—considering all aspects of the deal, not just price
• Skip the rookie mistakes—because I’ve honed my process over 20+ years
• Access insider opportunities—through my deep ties with the SF community
• Get every job done right—with trusted craftspeople, brokers, lawyers, and more
Everyone’s situation is as unique as they are. That is why I invest the time up-front to get to know you and understand your particular needs. Together, we build a step-by-step plan so you know exactly what to expect, and when. I will get you from where you are to where you want to go, and make it feel effortless.
Reach out to schedule your private consultation: 415.640.4757 | brendon.kearney@compass.com
Brendon is a true professional and very knowledgeable in the SF area. He is very responsive and very accessible, and he made himself available whenever I needed to chat with him. He got my dream condo in SF at the price that I wanted.
Ali & Shokoofeh S. | Buyer | Nob Hil
Brendon is the best there is. Knowledgeable, patient, well connected, and experienced; he is exactly what anyone could hope for a realtor. He helped me both buy and later sell my home with complete expertise and frank but friendly communication. I have already recommended him to everyone I know and will continue to do so.
Alex & Taylor | Seller | Hayes Valley
BRENDON KEARNEY
Broker, Top 1% San Francisco Agents 415.640.4757 brendon.kearney@compass.com brendonkearney.com DRE 01350213
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California and abides by Equal Housing Opportunity laws. License Number 01527235. All material present- ed herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without notice. No statement is made as to accuracy of any description. All measurements and square footages are approximate.
Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Page 21 Page 22 Page 23 Page 24 Page 25 Page 26 Page 27 Page 28 Page 29 Page 30Made with FlippingBook Online newsletter maker