Scenario planning was used to identify potential location of future growth and development. Low-, medium, and high-growth scenarios for the 2045 forecast year were developed using NCTCOG’s future data sets and traffic analysis zones (TAZs). The low-growth scenario was based on the study area’s existing and current compound annual growth rate (CAGR) levels. The medium-growth scenario was based on the City of Fort Worth’s CAGR levels so the Eastside can capture the same amount of growth as the rest of the City. The high-growth scenario was based on doubling the medium-growth scenario. Assumptions for growth scenario planning included that data is based on historical City of Fort Woth trends for CAGR. Fort Worth’s historic CAGR for population is 2.15%, and for employment, the CAGR is 1.86%. A uniform distribution of population and employment was assumed along corridors with higher susceptibility to change scores. Table 6 summarizes the three 2045 population and employment growth scenarios alongside the study area and major corridors.
Table 6: 2045 Growth Forecast Scenarios
CITY OF FORT WORTH 955,621
STUDY AREA 114,212 73,916
DOTTIE LYNN CORRIDOR
HANDLEY CORRIDOR
IH-30 CORRIDOR
GROWTH SCENARIO
2023 Population 2023 Employment
29,994 27,282
31,023
32,605 11,529
-
-
High-growth Scenario
Population Forecast (3.6% CAGR)
-
237,413
65,305
67,546
-
Employment Forecast
-
-
-
-
-
Medium-growth Scenario RECOMMENDED SCENARIO Population Forecast (2.15% CAGR) 1,525,914 163,844
50,344
49,537
51,202
Employment Forecast (1.86% CAGR)
-
97,351
42,236
-
19,593
Low-growth Scenario Population Forecast (0.81% CAGR) Employment Forecast (0.39% CAGR)
-
139,879
35,844
36,806
37,830
-
79,883
29,732
-
15,767
The three corridors would have significantly more density than the study area and City of Fort Worth. Looking at population and employment forecasts across the corridors, the medium-growth scenario is the recommended scenario based on population and employment levels. The Dottie Lynn Corridor would have a smaller population but approximately double the amount of density compared to the other corridors. This indicates the Dottie Lynn Corridor has less total land area available for growth.
100 Table of Contents
FORT WORTH EASTSIDE TRANSPORTATION PLAN
Made with FlippingBook. PDF to flipbook with ease