ADDENDUM #1 Fall Quarter Update As of 10/3/18
The university invested a significant amount of time and energy preparing the FY19 annual budget, which the board approved in July, 2018. The budget was based on certain estimates, including an estimate of the number of students CWU would serve from fall 2018 through spring 2019. Enrollment calculations included both the number of individual students, or “headcount” (HC), and full-time equivalents (FTE). FTE are calculated by dividing the total credit hours for which students have registered, by 15, which the state considers to be a full load for the purposes of budgeting. Initial estimates are typically generated in late January, based on the size and composition of the admissions applicant pool, compared to prior-year applicant pools, and the volume of acceptances compared to prior years. From this estimate, staff calculate a typical yield on acceptances and apply some judgment to arrive at the first fall enrollment estimate. The next significant milestone is the housing application priority deadline of June 1. At this time, we can use housing contracts, for which students must provide a $200-deposit, as a complimentary data point, along with updated acceptance numbers and orientation attendance later in the summer. But the first time we can know with certainty what fall headcount and full-time equivalent (FTE) will be is at “census,” which is the tenth day of classes. Both headcount and FTE will shift throughout the year. However, once fall census is complete, we can predict with high accuracy the winter and spring enrollment and related revenues for all operating funds. The following is a comparison of census enrollment data and the enrollment estimates used for budgeting. From this information, we can predict the impact on revenues for each of the four operating fund groups. This addendum will focus only on revenue forecasts; expense forecasts will be the focus of the winter quarter update. Fall Census vs. Budget Drivers The key number in developing the FY19 operating budget was the expectation of 100 more headcount in fall ’18 than in fall ’17. The chart below indicates that enrollment increased, in fact, by only 56 students compared to the prior year.
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