Market Trends
There Are No Market Gurus ANYONE SELLING YOU CERTAINTY IS SELLING YOU SOMETHING ELSE TOO.
AARON CHAPMAN
O ccasionally I call the market movement correctly based on price action/chart history on the MBS candlestick charts. I don’t have anyone screaming out my name as some market guru, so I am left to myself for any acknowledgment and compliments. But let’s not get it twisted: It was a good guess. That’s it. I didn’t channel the spirits of the Federal Reserve or whisper to the ghost of Milton Friedman. I just paid attention, made a calculated move, and the market went my way. THE GURU MYTH And that right there is the problem with this industry. People act like there’s some mystical “insider knowledge” floating around—like if you just subscribe to the right newsletter, rub elbows with the right trader, or get copied on the right email chain, you’ll unlock the secrets of the rate universe. Let me burst that bubble for you: That “secret email” you think no one else has? It’s been read, tweeted, podcast, and
traded on spread from hell to breakfast before you even opened your inbox. And guess what? Even the folks writing that stuff might be completely wrong. Or worse, they might not believe it at all. Some of them are just taking big swings to build a brand, move a position, or sound like a genius when one wild call actually lands. The rest of their garbage? Forgotten. Swept under the rug like a bad first date. CONFIDENCE ISN’T ACCURACY That’s how this game works: loud voices, flashy charts, bold predictions—and absolutely no accountability. But boy, does it sound smart. That’s why it spreads. People love confidence—even when it’s empty. The name Cramer pop into your head just then? I know it did when I wrote that line. Here’s where it gets dangerous. If you start to believe someone out there actually knows—really knows—where
rates are headed next, you’ve just put yourself in the dumbest position in finance: trusting a guru. I’ve had folks read my analysis and react like I’m some kind of mortgage market prophet. Makes my stomach turn every time. You start thinking I’ve got a crystal ball. That’s when you start making decisions based on faith instead of facts. And that’s how people get wrecked. No one—and I mean no one—gets this right all the time. Hell, barely anyone gets it right more than half the time. And if they did, they wouldn’t be on the internet telling you—they’d be filthy rich and off the grid. Even with 51% accuracy, you’re wrong half the time. Let that sink in. PREPARATION BEATS PREDICTION So, what do I do instead of pretending to be a prophet? I gutflop. I plan. I lay out if/then scenarios based on real-world conditions, not hopium. I
38 | think realty magazine :: september - october 2025
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