People act like there’s some mystical “insider knowledge” floating around—like if you just subscribe to the right newsletter ... you’ll unlock the secrets of the rate universe.”
AARON CHAPMAN
And here’s the final kicker: Even if all the major players in the bond market tried to team up and push rates in a certain direction, they probably couldn’t pull it off. The market’s too big. Jamie Dimon made this point in June 2025 when he told the world that 100 trillion a day moves through the world markets. That is waaaay too much noise. Too many moving parts. There is no lever behind the curtain. No puppet master. The Fed’s lever is no bigger than a light switch when it comes to making a definitive influence on the overall market. So unless you’ve got a personal hedge fund set up that lets you trade derivatives to cover your lock decisions on retail mortgage apps, let me save you some pain: There are no sages. There are no gurus. There’s only you, your preparation, and how well you understand the ground beneath your feet. Anyone selling you certainty in
don’t “call the market”—I prepare for what the market might do, and I stack my decisions accordingly. That’s the grown-up way to play the game. Let me hit you with another truth: Even the sharpest traders in the biggest firms are just specialists working their tiny sliver of the market. One guy knows MBS. Another knows Treasurys. Another watches stocks. They’re all siloed. The guy crushing MBS trading doesn’t have a clue what’s happening in oil, labor, or geopolitical risk. That’s not his job. You know who saw the 2008 housing collapse coming? It wasn’t the bond trader in Manhattan—it was your buddy in Phoenix with three buddies who all just bought second homes on stated income. Street-level knowledge beat Wall Street blinders. That’s why even the “best” MBS trader can be the worst person to ask about mortgage rate direction. They don’t need to know the full macro picture to do their job—and they often don’t.
Aaron Chapman is a veteran in the finance industry, beginning in 1997 after he exited mining, heavy equipment operation, welding and long-haul truck driving. Since entering the finance industry, his clientele has ranged from those purchasing their first homes, building their dream homes, or investing in multiple properties for long-term cash flow. His expertise is in the complicated. Presently ranked #14 in an industry of over 300,000 licensed loan originators closing in excess of 100 transactions per month, Chapman is that battle-worn partner every real estate entrepreneur needs to walk through the tough parts of building a real estate business. If you want to know where individual investment property performs during market uncertainty, connect at www.aaronchapman.com.
this business is either lying, selling something, or trying to make up for how little they know.
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