introduction + approach
In 2007, the Urban Futures Institute produced a report titled Demographic & Demand: Managing Growth & Change in the Real Estate Industry (The Context for BC and its Regions). In that report, also written by the authors of this paper, future employment in the real estate sector was examined in the context of both demographic changes (aging and retirements) and externally-driven growth in the industry, vis-a-vis expanding demand for housing and real estate services stemming from a growing and changing population. This report adopts the same approach as the previous one to evaluate future changes within real estate occupations (grouped into “conveyance” and “development” aggregates) in British Columbia and its eight economic regions. More specifically, this report quantifies both the magnitude of potential attrition within each of the real estate conveyance and development sectors over the next two decades due to aging and retirement (answering the question of how much recruitment is needed within each sector to make up for expected retirements), and the extent to which employment growth within each sector will be required to meet future housing demand. The data in this report have been obtained from a variety of sources. Data describing employment by occupation and housing occupancy (including household maintainer rates) are from the 2011 and 2021 Canadian Censuses. Recent historical and future annual population changes by age group are from BC Stats and their P.E.O.P.L.E. demographic series. At this point it is important to make a note of the most recent projections from BC Stats. In early 2024 BC Stats released a new projection series to reflect updates to national immigration policy that moved immigration targets up to 500,000 in both 2025 and 2026. As part of this new projection series BC Stats also revised their assumptions about levels of immigration beyond 2026. These new projections expect future levels of immigration to BC to be maintained at 75,000 immigrants annually to 2046. With BC’s average share of national immigration in the range of 15 percent, the implicit assumption is that national immigration is maintained at or above 500,000 annually between 2027 and 2046. Provincially, this new projection series takes the province to 7.45 million residents by 2041, 11% more than the 6.73 million previously expected for that date.
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