2. Demographic context for change within the real estate sector
● Between 2011 and 2021 the Mainland/Southwest region added 458,616 people, a 17 percent increase which saw its resident population grow from 2,727,081 to 3,185,697 people. The region saw growth each year, at a relatively slow pace, with the annual growth rate peaking in 2014 and 2019 at 1.9 percent. From 2019, rates saw a decline through to 2021 reaching as low as 0.8 percent, however, 2022’s rate saw an increase ending at 2.7 percent. [Figure MS-3] ● In the coming years Mainland/Southwest’s population is projected to continue to grow, but it will do so at a declining rate compared to what has been seen historically, as low birth rates and the declining contribution of natural increase (the number of births each year net of the number of deaths) will see net migration to the region serve as the primary driver to future growth. While annual population change will reach 3.3 percent in the near-term, it is expected to decline thereafter, falling to 1.5 percent by 2041. This long-range pattern of change would see Mainland/Southwest’s population grow from its 2021 population of 3,185,697 to 4,615,914 in 20 years, an increase of 1,430,217 residents (a 45 percent increase). ● The 1,430,217-person increase expected for Mainland/Southwest by 2041 would be driven by growth across a variety of age cohorts (Figure MS-4). The greatest absolute increase is projected to be in the 65 plus group, which would grow by 361,450 people. The 35 to 44 age group would also see an increase (of 329,964 people) followed by the 25 to 34 group (265,073 additional residents). The other age groups are all expected to grow between but more minimally compared to the other groups with the 45 to 54, under 15, and 15 to 24 cohorts growing by 163,167, 151,056, and 133,175 workers respectively. The 55 to 64 age group is expected to realize the lowest level of growth adding 26,332 workers. It is clear that migration will be the dominant theme that will characterize community change in the Mainland/Southwest region. [Figure MS-4] ● In relative terms the greatest changes would be seen in the 35 to 44, 65 plus, and the 25 to 34 age groups, which would grow by 71 percent, 66 percent, and 53 percent respectively. The 45 to 54 cohort is projected to have a relative change of 39 percent while the 15 to 24 and under 15 age groups are each expected to grow by 34%. The remaining 55 to 64 age group saw a minimal increase in population of six percent.
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