3. Population Growth and Housing Demand
● There is a distinct age-related pattern of maintaining a household in the Mainland/Southwest region. Tenant-occupancy is relatively prominent in the younger age groups, with the most likely renters being between the ages of 30 and 34 where a quarter of people in this age group maintain rental accommodation. The propensity to maintain rental accommodation steadily declines from the 30 to 34 age group for each cohort all the way through to a low of 12 percent in the 85 plus population maintaining rental accommodation. [Figure MS-5] ● Not surprisingly, the propensity to maintain an owner-occupied household increases quickly through the period of the lifecycle characterized by labour force entry and the early family formation. Between the 15 to 19 and the 45 to 49 age groups, ownership rates increase from below one percent to 36 percent. From the significant increase over each five year age group during this stage of the lifecycle, rates level out between the ages of 50 and 69 where approximately 42 percent of people in the Mainland/Southwest maintain owner occupied accommodation. It is important to note here that these rates are almost 10 percent lower compared to other regions within British Columbia, a pattern in part driven by higher mobility and in part by higher prices. Owner occupied maintainer rates continue to increase, albeit much more slowly than in the younger age groups, peaking at 46 percent for the 75 to 79 age group before declining for the 80 to 84 and 85 plus age groups, as older residents move towards rental accommodation or towards other forms of housing such as nursing homes and care facilities. ● In order to develop a projection of future housing demand in the region, the age specific maintainer rates were combined with the age specific population projections for the Mainland/Southwest region to determine the impact that demography alone would have on future housing demand. This projection provides a benchmark indication of the level of future demand the real estate industry might anticipate in the coming decades. With respect to historical changes in the age-specific patterns of maintaining a home, while availability and affordability have historically pushed maintainer rates down for the younger cohorts entering the housing market, this projection assumes that by 2041 a greater balance in the housing market will emerge and allow rates for the younger generations to increase back to levels seen a decade ago (2011). ● Total housing demand in the Mainland/Southwest region is projected to increase from 1,249,774 units in 2021 to 1,612,593 by 2031 and further to 1,934,615 by 2041. Over the next 20 years this represents an increase of 684,841 units, or a 55 percent increase from 2021. Annual changes in occupancy demand would decline over the long-term, from 3.1 percent in 2022 then falling to 1.6 percent annual growth by 2041. Net additional owner-occupancy demand would therefore average approximately 34,242 units per year, a 39 percent increase above the 20,863 units averaged over the 2011 to 2021 period. ● Growth in housing demand for owned tenure is expected to increase from 789,003 units in 2021 to 1,031,831 by 2031 and further to 1,246,373 by 2041. This increase of 457,370 units over the next 20 years represents an increase of 58 percent from 2021. For rental, the 460,771 units in 2021 is expected to increase to 580,762 by 2031 reaching 688,242 by 2041 (an increase of 49 percent from 2021). [Figure MS-6]
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