I NS I GHT Travel then, now, next
As ITB Berlin marks its 60th anniversary, Dave Goodger, Managing Director, EMEA, Tourism Economics traces the
evolution of global travel, from rapid expansion and shifting source markets to new traveller priorities, and looks ahead to the sources of future growth
Travel keeps growing, fast The global international travel market has expanded dramatically over the past 60 years, far outpacing growth in overall economic activity. Focusing on the past three decades – where data coverage is stronger – the number of international overnight arrivals has more than trebled since 1995, even after accounting for the disruption caused by the pandemic. By 2019, the global travel market was already three times larger than in 1995, while global GDP had only doubled over the same period. This exceptional growth reflects the increasing prioritisation of travel relative to other forms of spending, alongside a sharp rise in the number of households able to afford it. As a result, the share of the global population with the means to travel regularly has risen from around one-third to over one-half. Specifically for international travel, affordability has increased from under 20% of the global population to more than 35%, while the proportion able to afford longer-haul or more premium experiences has approximately doubled. Travel affordability has been further supported by falling costs in some segments, alongside rising average incomes. Improvements in connectivity and capacity have increased competition and contributed to lower prices, reinforced by advances in transportation technology. Analysis by Tourism Economics, in collaboration with the International Air Transport Association (IATA), suggests that more favourable prices, improved connectivity, and expanded trade account for around one-third of growth in global air
passenger flows during recent growth cycles. The remaining growth has been driven by population expansion, demographic shifts, and rising average incomes globally. Inbound trends Alongside overall growth, global travel has undergone a significant geographic rebalancing, with activity now more widely distributed across regions than ever before. Several major emerging economies have risen in prominence as source markets, changing patterns of demand and preferred destinations. The rapid expansion of middle-class households in large emerging markets has shifted the centre of gravity for global travel eastwards. Thirty years ago, India ranked ninth globally for combined domestic and outbound leisure travel spending; today it is the fourth-largest market. China has experienced the most dramatic rise, moving from 20th place to become the second-largest travel market globally, and it is expected to overtake the United States as the largest source market within the next five years. In contrast, the influence of Japan as a source market has diminished. Thirty years ago, Japan was the world’s largest market for domestic and outbound leisure travel spending; it has since fallen to eighth place, reflecting slower population growth and more modest income expansion. This shift in source markets has been mirrored by changes in destination patterns. In 1995, around 60% of international arrivals were concentrated in established destinations in Western Europe and North
TRAVEL THEN
From 1975 to 2019, worldwide inbound arrivals roughly doubled every 15 years, reaching almost
1.5 billion travellers
178 | ITB GLOBAL TRAVEL COLLECTION
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