Pulse Forward Magazine

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PULSE FORWARD DRIVING THE FUTURE OF FOOD SYSTEMS

I S S U E # 1 6 D E C . 2 0 2 4

THE DESI GOLD RUSH How Australia is tackling the challenge of shipping its second biggest crop on record in a very short time frame.

WHY WE SHOULD FOCUS ON EATING HABITS. Global market insights from Sunil Patwari.

MEXICO'S BEAN IMPORTS AND THE CURRENT CROP. Felipe Sandoval shares his insider perspective.

FOOD GIANTS ARE GETTING REGENERATIVE. How can our industry seize this opportunity?

Contact us EDITOR IN CHIEF MARIANA FUSARO mariana@globalpulses.com CONTENT EDITOR LARA GILMOUR Lara@globalpulses.com

SHORTLIST / GPC AWARDS

Elementa Foods Produces and processes NON-GMO plant-based proteins and derivatives from Andean lupins. COUNTRY: ARGENTINA

IBRAFE The National Association for beans and pulses in Brazil, bringing together the whole value chain.

COUNTRY: BRAZIL NOMINEE FOR: SUSTAINABILITY ibrafe.org

NOMINEE FOR: INNOVATION elementafoods.com

What is your contribution to the industry? The development of a a sweet lupin variety known for its natural composition and high protein content that does not require pre-consumption processing to remove alkaloids. What is the potential of your initiative? The new variety has become a key ingredient in creating diverse products. We are also encouraging farmers to grow lupins, which are native to the region, as a sustainable alternative to soy.

What is your contribution to the industry? Our mission is to support, encourage and increase the production and consumption of Brazilian beans and pulses both at home and abroad. What is the potential of your initiative? By encouraging Brazilians to grow, eat and trade more pulses, we hope to improve the sustainability of the agrifood sector, the nutrition of our population and the prosperity of our country.

SPOTLIGHT Emerging trends in African agtech investment in 5 key facts 1 • Stabilization post-bubble

SPOTLIGHT

After the investment bubble burst in 2023, there has been a stabilization in the agtech sector. Although funding levels have decreased compared to the peak years of 2021/2022, they remain significantly higher than pre-2019 levels and than the 10-year average. 2 • Shift towards early-stage funding There has been an increase in early- stage funding, supported by accelerator programs globally and philanthropy, focused on smallholder farms. This contrasts with stable funding levels for

Drones are one of the fastest growing on-farm technologies (Shutterstock).

SPOTLIGHT

SPOTLIGHT

later-stage ventures, which is driven by commercial funders. 3 • Sector specialization There is a growing trend towards specialization within the agtech sector, with more focus on specific areas such as climate-smart agriculture and on- farm technologies, such as drones and AI. Later stages of the supply chain are underfunded. 4 • Philanthropy-driven funding Much of the current funding landscape is driven by semi-commercial and non- commercial entities, including impact investors and foundations, rather than traditional commercial funders. The focus remains heavily on smallholding farms. 5 • Geographical shifts While Kenya remains a leading hub for agri food tech investments, other

countries like Egypt and Nigeria are also gaining prominence. Additionally, there is increasing investment interest in countries outside the traditional "big four" (Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt), such as Morocco and Ghana. Climate-smart rotating anemometer to measure wind speed with solar cell system (Shutterstock).

PULSE POD CURATED

PULSE POD CURATED

What we’ve been writing about

WHY KHARIF TUR NUMBERS MAY NEED A REVIEW, THE AUSSIE PULSE SNACK REVOLUTION AND A FULL PERSPECTIVE ON UZBEK MUNG BEANS.

PULSE POD CURATED

PULSE POD CURATED

PULSE POD CURATED

PULSE POD CURATED

The 3.5 MMT estimate is an important benchmark, but the final figures could be higher (Shutterstock).

FOOD FORWARD

FOOD FORWARD

Agriculture’s regenerative revolution As the agricultural industry faces unprecedented challenges from climate change, a powerful solution is emerging: regenerative agriculture. As the trend gains traction, as does a unique opportunity for the pulse industry to lead the charge in sustainable food production W ith its focus on enhancing soil health, increasing biodiversity, and sequestering carbon, regenerative agriculture aligns perfectly with the inherent qualities of pulse crops. Their nitrogen-fixing abilities enrich the soil naturally, reducing the need for synthetic fertilizers and playing a crucial role in crop diversification and

While incentives for farmers abound, the only thing missing is to raise awareness about the cataclysmic role pulses can play.

FOOD FORWARD

FOOD FORWARD

as effective cover crops. This, combined with their water efficiency compared to other crops, makes for a winning recipe to push agriculture towards becoming a carbon sink - a huge step forward in the fight against climate change. Major food corporations are already recognizing the importance of regenerative practices and are making significant commitments. Viterra recently announced a partnership with xFarm Technologies to support farmers in the adoption of agricultural practices focused on carbon measurement and regenerative agriculture. PepsiCo, a major buyer of chickpeas in the USA, has pledged to implement regenerative farming practices across seven million acres by 2030. Chemical giant Bayer has also launched a Carbon Program, which offers financial incentives for farmers implementing regenerative practices, such as no-till and strip-till, and this year

it expanded the program eligibility to include pulse farmers in the USA. OWNING THE LEADING ROLE These initiatives from industry giants By embracing regenerative practices, pulse producers can position themselves at the forefront of sustainable agriculture (Shutterstock).

FOOD FORWARD

FOOD FORWARD

signal a seismic shift in agricultural priorities. Despite this, few companies have made the link between the benefits of regenerative agriculture and those of pulses. Clearly, for the entire pulses value chain, this presents an unprecedented opportunity to expand production and increase consumption. The only thing missing is to raise awareness across both the public and private sector about the cataclysmic role pulses can play in the regenerative revolution. While transitioning to regenerative practices can be challenging, carbon programs like Viterra’s provide crucial support, offering resources and incentives to facilitate the shift. By embracing and promoting regenerative practices, pulse producers can position themselves as leaders in sustainable agriculture. This not only aligns with global environmental goals but also opens new markets and

increases demand for pulse crops. New trade flows can also be created to incentivize supply – Brazil’s recent, highly successful foray into black matpe exports to India is a testament to this. PIVOTAL TIMES The convergence of regenerative agriculture trends and the natural benefits of pulses represents a unique moment in time for the industry. By increasing production and promoting the role of pulses in sustainable farming systems, the industry can meet growing demand, contribute to global sustainability goals, and secure a prominent place in the future of agriculture. The time for pulses to shine in the regenerative agriculture movement is now – seizing this opportunity could transform both the industry and global agricultural practices for generations to come.

FOOD FORWARD

PULSES & BEYOND SUNIL PATWARI SEASONS OVERSEAS

PULSES & BEYOND SUNIL PATWARI SEASONS OVERSEAS

“Changing eating habits is challenging - but crucial for the industry's growth” Lara Gilmour talks to Sunil Patwari, Founder & Managing Director of Seasons Overseas, about desi, yellow pea and pigeon pea markets and why he’s skeptical about emerging pigeon pea and black matpe suppliers. What's been on your mind at work recently? What have you been working on? Business-wise, things are a bit slow because most of the market has dropped heavily. Our markets are in the India subcontinent, and yellow peas,

When any country grows pulses that depend on only one or two countries for consumption, there should be a clear policy in place, he states.

FOOD FORWARD PULSES & BEYOND SUNIL PATWARI SEASONS OVERSEAS

FOOD FORWARD PULSES & BEYOND SUNIL PATWARI SEASONS OVERSEAS

chickpeas, and pigeon peas are all performing poorly. Can you go into more detail about the dynamics of the desi chickpea and yellow pea markets? I found it difficult to accept the price difference between yellow peas and chickpeas. Although they are different commodities, a $400 gap was excessive. Nobody wanted to buy yellow peas when people were paying $800-900 for chickpeas. People who bought cargo at high prices are in a difficult position. If the cargo is arriving soon and can be shipped quickly, they might still be able to reduce their losses. However, those who bought for future delivery will face challenges as there will likely be a lot of cargo available in the market. There are two schools of thought. Some believe there's a shortage, so any incoming cargo will be absorbed.

Others are hesitant to buy when markets are declining. The chickpea and yellow pea markets are mainly driven by large players who typically stock large quantities of cargo. Currently, everyone is moving slowly because the market is dropping and they have existing stocks they want to sell first. There's fear about what will happen next and whether prices will drop further. Confidence has been lost, as nobody expected such a significant price drop. We're seeing a huge market correction. Let's talk a little bit about pigeon peas. We're seeing some different estimates come out about the size of the crop in India. What's your take on that for next year? Overall, pigeon peas have been quite bullish last year because the crop yield was very low. Prices were consistently high until about two or three months ago

FOOD FORWARD PULSES & BEYOND SUNIL PATWARI SEASONS OVERSEAS

FOOD FORWARD PULSES & BEYOND SUNIL PATWARI SEASONS OVERSEAS

PING-PONG What do you do when you're not working? Chill, relax, watch a good series on TV. If you weren't in this business, what would you be doing? I'd be in a school teaching! What is one quality that you think everyone in the world should have? Sincerity . If you were stranded on a desert island and could bring one object, what would it be? I'd bring water.

If you could go back in time and speak to your 18-year-old self, what would you tell him?

Just enjoy the time. Enjoy that moment.

Who is someone that you admire? My parents and my brother. I got a lot of learning and guidance from them. If you could only eat one meal for the rest of your life, what would it be? I'd be happy to eat rice & pulses (Daal Chawal) every day. They're healthy and good.

PULSES & BEYOND SUNIL PATWARI SEASONS OVERSEAS

PULSES & BEYOND SUNIL PATWARI SEASONS OVERSEAS

when Africa started shipping cargoes. Until July, the prices were extremely high, with Myanmar trading as high as $1450 and Africa trading at $1200. Now, Africa is trading at $800 plus, and there are no takers. Myanmar is at $1000 plus, also with no takers. We've seen a correction of about 30-35%, which is significant. The Indian crop will play an important role, but India is also encouraging many other countries to grow pigeon peas. I recently saw an article mentioning that India is approaching Russia to grow more pigeon peas and black matpe. Brazil is already increasing production of black matpe. Given these factors, I think the price sentiments will be a bit low. I'm not predicting a very bullish trend at the moment. We'll have to see how the crop develops. Crop forecasts and targets can differ from actual yields. Only when the crop comes in January-February will we know how pigeon pea production is

ABOUT SEASONS OVERSEAS

Group established in 2013 to service the growing demand of high quality agricultural products, focusing on rice, pulses, sugar, grains, oil seeds, and animal feed/ meals. Headquarters in Singapore and offices in Myanmar and India. Asia Top Enterprise Award in 2015. Active buyer and seller network comprising 200+ corporations around the world.

FOOD FORWARD PULSES & BEYOND SUNIL PATWARI SEASONS OVERSEAS

PULSES & BEYOND SUNIL PATWARI SEASONS OVERSEAS

shaping up in India and whether it will provide price support or not. We're seeing dynamics shift hugely across the world. On one hand, India is aiming for self-sufficiency, and on the other, we have new suppliers of pigeon pea and black matpe possibly emerging. What's your perspective? I'm not very positive about the overall scenario. When any country grows specific pulses that depend on only one or two countries for consumption, there should be a clear policy in place. Take Africa, for example. They've grown from producing 200,000-300,000 tonnes to about 700,000-800,000 tonnes this year, with potential for more. But does India really need more pigeon peas from other countries? There's a contradiction here. India says they want to be self- sufficient, yet they're encouraging farmers in different countries to grow

pigeon peas. If these countries grow pigeon peas, what happens in terms of policy support? If there's a clear policy, it makes sense for these countries to produce. Without a clear policy, the offtake risk is too high. How do countries like Brazil and Russia compare to those in Africa when it comes to growing new crops to export? The Russian playing field versus the African playing field are totally different. Africa has more small farmers with small lands, which allows for more flexibility in what they grow. Russia, on the other hand, can operate on a very large scale. Look at peas as an example. When Russia started growing peas, they produced about 50,000-100,000 tonnes. Now we're talking about millions of tonnes. So anything can happen - Russia could potentially produce a large volume of pigeon peas and black matpe.

PULSES & BEYOND SUNIL PATWARI SEASONS OVERSEAS

PULSES & BEYOND SUNIL PATWARI SEASONS OVERSEAS

However, I don't think they would be able to export such large volumes effectively. Do you think catalyzing supply or demand is the answer to increasing pulse production globally? We should focus on changing food habits and promoting increased pulse consumption worldwide, through raising awareness of the dietary, nutritional and environmental advantages of pulses. Then, farmers would be more inclined to grow pulses, which are also healthy for the soil. We should push demand and let supply follow. Changing people's eating habits is challenging but it’s crucial for the industry's growth. Looking ahead to Pulses 25, you must be excited to see this event in your home country! What role does Singapore play in the pulse industry? Singapore plays a very important role

in pulses in terms of financing, shipping, logistics, and banking. It's also a very visa-friendly country, making it easier for people to participate and meet suppliers and buyers in one place. You were fundamental in the conception of the GPC’s Pulse Atlas. How can it position itself as an indispensable resource for the industry? The Pulse Atlas is the only source that provides all pulse data under one roof. It's a one-stop platform for any players, strategic planners, bankers financing the trade, insurance people, or new players entering the market. It's an asset for the Global Pulse Confederation, and the current team is doing a very good job updating and upgrading it. I believe that AI could play a role in the future but note that current data still needs to be manually input.

THE BIG PICTURE

The chickpea gold rush Following a strong market signal from the Indian government, Australia in 2024 has harvested the biggest crop of desi chickpeas since 2016 – its second-highest on record. The bumper crop is bringing its fair share of both profits and problems; after a strong start, prices have begun to slump as the harvest draws to a close. Now, with Ramadan round the corner, logistics pushed to the limit, and India’s rabi seeding late, the market hangs in the balance. BY LUKE WILKINSON 8 MINUTE READ

THE BIG PICTURE

THE BIG PICTURE

To understand the origins of the desi price crash, we have to go back to May of this year, when India removed its 40% duty on desi chickpea imports. This was a starter pistol, fired for the benefit of the world's desi producers – particularly Australia – to let them know India would be in the market for imports. Aussie farmers responded by ramping up seeding, and a season of favorable weather led to mammoth production. To put the increase into perspective, last year's Australian production was between 450-491 KMT, whereas estimates this year suggest we may see this tripled. "Effectively we've gone from a 400 KMT production to a 2 MMT production," says Mostyn Gregg, Vice-President of Olam Agri. "Others would go a bit lower than me, but I think that given the conditions, acreage, and exceptional yields we’ve seen so far – decile 10 yields – 2 MMT is achievable.”

Will Watchorn, Global Head of Pulses at Viterra is a little more conservative, stating that Aussie farmers will "be looking at less than 2 MMT.” The lastest ABARES report, released on December 4, aligns with this, projecting 1.9 MMT, a significant correction from the initial 1.3 MMT it had predicted As expected, India was keen to bring in imports of Aussie desis as soon as the harvest was brought off , but strain on logistics has stemmed the flow. Struggles to pump out crops are perhaps understandable, given its unique size and the circumstances it emerges into. Mostyn Gregg explains: "The variations in crop size, especially on the East Coast of Australia, mean there hasn't been investment into East Coast elevation – the system is set up to execute an average back in September. Boom to bottleneck

THE BIG PICTURE

THE BIG PICTURE

crop and no more. There are only three trains that service the East Coast and Grain Corp, and they're all busy trying to move chickpeas. Unfortunately, there's just not enough elevation to move it in the time window the destination wants. "On top of that, the Central Queensland and Brisbane zones came off at the same time this year – which is unusual . Rather than Queensland in October, Brisbane in November, and Newcastle in December, it's all been done in November. This means you've got harvest pressure from the grower and harvest timing coming together to create a bottleneck." Two important dates have conspired to heap pressure on Australia: March 31 – the date India's import duty returns, and February 28 – the beginning of Ramadan in India. The end of March duty deadline is a big part of the logistics problem, says Will

Increasing container trade,demanding wharf space and facilities, drove the development of Sydney's Botany Bay (Shutterstock).

THE BIG PICTURE

THE BIG PICTURE

Watchorn: "The Indian import policy date is creating the logistics issue as it means demand is frontloaded, which means you frontload your capacity. If India extends the deadline, the pressure will come off as there will be more time to sell. Whether there are any stocks left by the time they do that is another question." By mid-October, chickpea prices from Australia to India and to Pakistan both sat around $820/830 MT. By mid-November, those prices had plummeted to $670/MT and $700/MT respectively. In 2016, the last time Australia had a crop this big, Ramadan began on May 28 the following year, after India had brought in its Rabi crop. This meant India was able to supply its domestic market with its own production, rather than relying on imports from international sources, such

Last year's Australian production was 450-491 KMT, but estimates suggest we may see this tripled for 2024 (Shutterstock).

THE BIG PICTURE

THE BIG PICTURE

as Australia and Tanzania. However, 2016 saw a very different outlook for profits – December 2016 ended with record high desi prices, something not true in 2024. The bottom drops out On October 10, chickpea prices from Australia to India and Australia to Pakistan both sat around $820-830/MT. By November 15, not only had imports slowed, but the prices into India and Pakistan had plummeted to $670/MT and $700/MT, respectively. So, what happened? Well, many factors are in play. Deepak Pareek, Agricultural Economist, believes the price drop is normal in what had become an overheated market, saying: "There was too much speculation and desi chickpea prices skyrocketed to more than 60% above Minimum Support Price (MSP). In my view, this is a correction, and

nothing more." Overspeculation does chime with the thoughts of Binod Agarwal of SGR Commodities, who believes Indian buyers have bought more than they need: "Demand has slowed because buyers have covered more than their capacity. They bought at every price decrease, but then the market dropped. Most of the major festivals here are over, but the market hasn't picked up as expected. Domestic sales are good but at a disparity as the forward price in rupees is lower – prices may go up in November/December as farmers will need chana for seeding." Over buying may not be the only story. Faisal Anis Majeed of Bombi Group describes Pakistani buyers as "waiting for the bottom of the Australian market" before they come back in for more imports. Majeed also stresses that yellow

THE BIG PICTURE

THE BIG PICTURE

peas will play a factor, explaining that "yellow pea imports into Pakistan are at an all-time high, so there will also be some substitution.” Industry sources suggest monthly yellow pea consumption in Pakistan has risen from 10-12 KMT to 18 KMT this year. Substitution of yellow peas is also a factor in India, according to Deepak Pareek, who explained that chana mills have likely seen “some switch over to yellow peas” when providing for the hospitality sector. Combined with low milling returns and strong supply, this has created a price spiral in desis , says Will Watchorn: "Indian millers have gone to trading on a hand- to-mouth basis because the market is trading at an inverse – i.e. spot has become more expensive than deferred. To me, this is symptomatic of an Australian crop that has surprised all of us. "We've had this increase of supply of

Central India and the Monsoon core zone, key areas for pulses farming, were challenged this year by excess rainfall (Shutterstock).

THE BIG PICTURE

THE BIG PICTURE

and 412 KMT, respectively, over the last five years . In recent years, the availability of dollars has been a concern for both countries, but Pakistan seems in a better position. Faisal Anis Majeed states that "with the support of the IMF and other institutions, Pakistan is maintaining its trade balance and getting into a better position" stressing that Pakistan "is not currently facing any difficulties getting forex for payments or establishing LCs". In Bangladesh, however, concerns remain over purchasing power. Binod Agarwal suggests that defaults on purchases “have already started”. Getting good value will also be key for the market, suggesting buyers will come out of the woodwork at the right price point. The last piece of the puzzle With 2 MMT to sell, every destination counts for Australia. But one destination

deferred," says Watchorn, “but when Australian farmers stop harvesting or the capacity angle bites, maybe those cheap offers suddenly move up. That's when we might see flattening of the inverse. Buyers are watching for this to happen, and if deferred prices rise, you will see them engage." The world outside India It isn’t just Indian buyers waiting and watching – other South Asian destinations will be keeping a keen eye . Both Pakistan and Bangladesh are big importers of desis when prices work. With Ramadan beginning on February 28, both will want to stock up accordingly – the purchases will need to be made with transit times in mind. How much both countries come for isn’t clear, but history tells a story. For, example, GPC’s Pulse Atlas data shows that Pakistan and Bangladesh have imported an average of 487 KMT

THE BIG PICTURE

THE BIG PICTURE

counts a little more than the others. Pulse Atlas data shows that since import duties on chickpeas came into force in 2017, India has averaged around 2.79 MMT of imports every year. How much is imported this year will depend on the government’s decision on extending duty-free desis , for which they will want projections of their rabi crop. Rains in key desi-producing states have caused a delay in November seeding, which may affect desi acres. "People in the trade are talking about 80% of a normal desi crop," says Mostyn Gregg, "which is probably fair given the delayed seeding and that at the same time, India’s got record-high pricing and a tight balance sheet for wheat." Strong wheat prices combined with delays may force farmers' hands into scrapping desis for wheat, but Deepak

Pareek doesn't think changes will be huge: "delayed sowing might end up with a shorter crop, but not by 20% – it could be within the 5-10% range at most. Soil and weather conditions are as bad for wheat." The rabi crop is a cliffhanger – a shorter harvest bodes well for Australia, but a bumper crop leaves it with a whole lot of chickpeas and shrinking demand from its number one importer. A bearish market would be less than ideal from that perspective. On the other hand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the UAE will be hoping that prices continue to slide, so that Ramadan preparations can be made in a friendly market. But in the end, everyone will be watching India, and a rabi crop set for January/February. We will have to wait until then to see what 2025 has in store for Australia's bounty of golden desis.

SATELLITE VIEW

SATELLITE VIEW

“Mexico’s seen record bean imports, but I think we’ll see a return to normal” Felipe Sandoval, Director of BeGrait, on how summer drought will cause a big rise in winter pulse acres.

BY LUKE WILKINSON 6 MINUTE READ

What’s new for BeGrait? We’ve started a couple of new ventures this year. Firstly, we’ve begun working with ETG, who now have a processing plant in Queretaro, which distributes products from Canada and the United

They never stop looking for ways to innovate and find commercial mechanisms to compete with the giants in the pulse industry, he says.

SATELLITE VIEW

SATELLITE VIEW

States to sell into domestic markets here in Mexico. We've been collaborating with them to help source chickpeas here in Sinaloa and offering our support entering into the Mexican market. In turn, it has helped us open up new commercial avenues of our own. Another company we're working on is based in Peru – we're developing a joint brand to enter the Peruvian market selling yellow beans and chickpeas to consumers looking for high quality pulses. It’s new and still a small enterprise, but we’re continuing to look for ways to innovate and find commercial mechanisms to compete with the giants in the pulse industry. How’s the spring/summer pulse crop looking? The majority of Mexico’s beans come from our spring/summer crop – particularly pintos and black beans. Initially, things looked promising because

there was some rain and seeding went well. Unfortunately, over time water became more and more scarce and as basically 98% of the production is rain-fed, the crops were badly affected. Early predictions of a 550-600 KMT crop (which would have been triple the 2023 crop) has turned into between 400-450 KMT. The harvest is ongoing and it is still considerably better than our production numbers from last year, which were a record low. And planting for the autumn/winter crop? Sinaloa is said to bring the large part of bean production for the autumn/ winter (A/W) crop. Now, the A/W crops are the inverse of the spring/summer crops in that 98% of seedings in Sinaloa are irrigated. We have eleven reservoirs, which fulfill our irrigation needs and look after all the different agricultural regions

SATELLITE VIEW

SATELLITE VIEW

in the state, but this year the water levels in those reservoirs are limited. Normally, farmers might plant around 550,000 hectares (ha) of corn, with maybe 60,000 ha of beans – 70,000 ha in a good year. On top of that we’ll plant maybe 50,000 ha of chickpeas. Added together, the chickpeas and beans don’t even represent half of what we plant in corn. Producers prefer corn because it has profitability and also a kind of commercial certainty due to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Beans and chickpeas are different – you have to put your finger in the air and gauge which way the wind is blowing. That's why farmers opt for corn whenever they can. However, the scarcity of water this year will mean less corn is seeded, which is sure to bump up the acreage of chickpeas and beans. This is only the second year we are seeing a significant quantity of pinto beans in the autumn/winter crop, and we could

see between 10,000-20,000 ha planted, as well as between 60,000-70,000 ha of yellow beans. For chickpeas, we could see between 70,000-80,000 ha. How is the new minimum guaranteed price for beans incentivizing farmers? The government has announced a guaranteed price of 27 pesos/MT for beans in the next spring/summer crop, which is a very attractive price for farmers. It's understandable that when they're being offered these prices and are not being given permission to plant corn, they will look to a crop they know how to grow and understand well. Whether or not the price they're being offered becomes reality remains to be seen. Mexico has seen a dramatic rise in bean imports, what’s causing this? The rise in imports has gone hand- in-hand with the effect of the drought

SATELLITE VIEW

SATELLITE VIEW

– mother nature hasn't smiled on us recently and production has dropped considerably. The only reason the impact of the drought hasn't been even stronger, is that consumption in Mexico has dropped. When I came into the industry in 2007, people spoke about a per capita annual consumption of 14/15 kg, whereas today we are talking about half or less than half of that. Consumption here is greatly correlated with age, so even population growth hasn't compensated for the general drop in consumption. What’s your outlook on the future of bean imports? Issues with climate have hit us hard and we've needed to bring in beans from our historic supplier, the USA. However, we have needed to look for different options and other sources, such as Brazil, Argentina and even China, to ensure that prices don't shoot up significantly. If you

look at the imports between 2015-2019, you were looking at 114 KMT on average every year during that period. In the period between 2020-2024, you're looking at an average of 215 KMT every year – almost double the rate of imports, due in large part to the impact of climate- related factors. This market year has seen a record in terms of import numbers and we're getting up to around 460 KMT of imported beans overall. However, I think next year will see a return to the mean. How would a possible 10% "universal" import tax in the US impact Mexico? Any import taxes on Mexican exports to the USA aren't likely to have a particular effect on pulses. It would affect yellow beans, which is a very niche market that we fulfill on a regular basis for Mexican expats, but otherwise, bean imports into the US from Mexico tend to be opportunistic ones.

FRACTIONS: A STORY IN 3 CHARTS

FRACTIONS: A STORY IN 3 CHARTS

2024 white bean production

1 ARGENTINA This year, Argentina’s crop of white beans was classified as a ‘disaster’ by the Argentine Chamber of Pulses. Of the 170 thousand hectares planted, 85 thousand tonnes were harvested - 30% of normal levels. Yields were highly inconsistent and quality was a concern, generally falling below European standards. Argentina, which has been losing market share in Europe due to successive years of unfavorable weather and subsequent poor harvests, will have very few beans to sell this marketing year, leaving room for new player Egypt to become a more significant supplier in a global context that is seeing tight supplies in general.

AREA HARVESTED AND PRODUCTION 1,000 Ha and 1,000 MT by Year

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

FRACTIONS: A STORY IN 3 CHARTS

FRACTIONS: A STORY IN 3 CHARTS

AREA HARVESTED AND PRODUCTION 1,000 Ha and 1,000 MT by Year

2 EGYPT Over the past five years, Egypt’s white bean production has been climbing steadily, reaching new highs in 2024. The country has been gaining market share in Europe, profiting from successive poor Argentine crops; the consequent increase in prices due to tight supplies incentivizing farmers to increase production every year. As well as on export markets, there is strong demand for white beans in the domestic sphere and farmers have reportedly adapted their growing practices in response to previous concerns about excessive temperatures, shifting towards planting more white beans in the old clay soils around the Nile.

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

FRACTIONS: A STORY IN 3 CHARTS

FRACTIONS: A STORY IN 3 CHARTS

AREA HARVESTED AND PRODUCTION 1,000 Ha and 1,000 MT by Year

3 TURKEY The Turkish white bean harvest in 2024 yielded around 100 thousand tonnes from 63 thousand hectares, down from 125 thousand tonnes in 2023 but generally in line with the five-year average. The government has continued the export ban on white beans that was implemented in 2023 to control prices on the domestic market and Turkey has also been importing white beans from various countries, including Argentina and Egypt, in addition to domestic production. There has been a shift in import patterns, with Turkey resuming imports of white beans from Ethiopia after a pause between 2022 and 2023.

AREA HARVESTED PRODUCTION

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