THE BIG PICTURE
THE BIG PICTURE
counts a little more than the others. Pulse Atlas data shows that since import duties on chickpeas came into force in 2017, India has averaged around 2.79 MMT of imports every year. How much is imported this year will depend on the government’s decision on extending duty-free desis , for which they will want projections of their rabi crop. Rains in key desi-producing states have caused a delay in November seeding, which may affect desi acres. "People in the trade are talking about 80% of a normal desi crop," says Mostyn Gregg, "which is probably fair given the delayed seeding and that at the same time, India’s got record-high pricing and a tight balance sheet for wheat." Strong wheat prices combined with delays may force farmers' hands into scrapping desis for wheat, but Deepak
Pareek doesn't think changes will be huge: "delayed sowing might end up with a shorter crop, but not by 20% – it could be within the 5-10% range at most. Soil and weather conditions are as bad for wheat." The rabi crop is a cliffhanger – a shorter harvest bodes well for Australia, but a bumper crop leaves it with a whole lot of chickpeas and shrinking demand from its number one importer. A bearish market would be less than ideal from that perspective. On the other hand, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and the UAE will be hoping that prices continue to slide, so that Ramadan preparations can be made in a friendly market. But in the end, everyone will be watching India, and a rabi crop set for January/February. We will have to wait until then to see what 2025 has in store for Australia's bounty of golden desis.
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