FUNDAMENTALS
SUBDIVISIONS
The Subdivision Market HOW TO DETERMINE IF THE SUBDEVELOPMENT MARKET IS RISING OR FALLING
by Charlie Einsmann
s real estate investors, we continuously ask what is going on with the market? Is it going up? Is it going down? Are we at our peak? Is it neutral? Well, it depends. It depends not only on which market you’re in, but it depends on what subdevelopment or subdivision you are analyzing. What is a subdevelopment or subdivision? The exact definition of subdivision is the act of dividing land into pieces that are easier to sell or otherwise develop, usually via a plat. If it is used for residential housing it is typically known as a housing subdivision or housing development. These areas could simply be called neigh- borhoods or communities. Some examples of subde- velopments are Dale City in Woodbridge, VA; Congress A
Heights in Washington D.C.; or Tantallon Hills in Fort Washington, Maryland. When analyzing properties on the MLS within a sub - development you must start with similar property types. Consider if the property is a townhouse (rowhouse), detached, duplex (semi-detached) or a condo. How do you know if a subdevelopment is rising, falling or neutral? It depends on the inventory levels within the subdevelop- ment. You need to look at the Active status, Under Con - tract Status (U/C, PND) and of course the Sold inventory. We always go out about 120 days of Sold inventory to get a good idea, but you can do 90 or 180 days. We just feel 180 is too long and 90 days is too short.
Status
Address
Beds Structure
Date
Price
Sq Ft
NEUTRAL MARKET Townhouses in Woodbridge, VA
1
ACT ACT ACT ACT
12808 Lockleven Ln 12691 Wimbley Ln 3843 Ogilvie Ct 2625 Jedburg Ln
3
End of Row
9/10/21 $410,000 1,502
3 Interior Row 9/2/21 $445,000 1,608 3 Interior Row 9/1/21 $405,000 1,360 3 Interior Row 8/31/21 $407,000 1,354
In this example, prices are not going up or down. The reason for this is the number of Active listings and Under Contract listings is very close to the number. The Solds are very similar as well. This is a very healthy market where there is a lot of buying activity but not to where the number of buyers outweigh the sellers.
A/C 8/22/21 $450,000 1,672 PND 12715 Inverness Way 4 Interior Row 8/26/21 $374,900 1,400 PND 4229 Devonwood Way 4 End of Row 8/30/21 $389,900 1,452 PND 4105 Hampstead Ln 4 Interior Row 8/20/21 $429,900 1,718 PND 4113 Plymbridge Ln 3 Interior Row 8/18/21 $425,000 1,620 CLS 12411 Abbey Knoll Ct 4 End of Row 9/6/21 $425,000 1,730 CLS 4107 Plymbridge Ln 3 Interior Row 7/30/21 $425,000 1,608 CLS 12775 Lockleven Ln 4 Interior Row 8/27/21 $399,000 1,366 CLS 12504 Manchester Way 4 Interior Row 8/10/21 $430,000 1,360 CLS 4101 Hampstead Ln 4 End of Row 7/23/21 $415,000 1,452 12659 Wimbley Ln 3 End of Row
24 | think realty magazine :: november 2021
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