March 2016

which has dominated American demographic patterns for decades, may now be reversing itself in the 21st century as rising housing costs, stagnant job creation, restrictive land- use laws and no-tax states, pull Californians, Midwesterners and Northeasterners eastward and southward to less costly regions and more business-friendly states in the Sun Belt. According to a recent United Van Lines report, Americans are increasingly moving eastward and southward, fleeing large expensive coastal states like California and New York and heading to more affordable states like Florida, Texas and the Carolinas where housing costs are more affordable, the weather is temperate and taxes are low. While Oregon was the leading moving destination, five states east of the Rocky Mountains — South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida, Vermont and Texas — topped the in-bound migration states. On the flip side, the leading outbound states included New Jersey, New York, Illinois, Connecticut, Ohio, Kansas andMassachusetts. Many of these states have been experiencing

at The Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., migration patterns from states in the Snow Belt (Northeast and Midwest) to formerly booming states in the Sun Belt like Arizona, Florida and Nevada began to slow as soon as the Great Recession hit and continued to shrink even into 2010. But new Census Bureau data shows a renewed Snow Belt-to- Sun Belt migration pattern, according to Frey. “The sizeable migration shifts from the states in the Snow Belt (Northeast and Midwest) region to the Sun Belt (South and West) region over the 2000 to 2006 period tapered off noticeably during the mortgage meltdown and recession years,” wrote Frey in recent blog, citing new Census bureau data. “Specifically, previously fast-growing states like Nevada, Florida, and Arizona experienced sharp slowdowns in migration and in the case of the former two states, actual out-migration for some of these years.” Frey said that the Sun Belt-to-Snow Belt housing migration has resumed again. Renewed Sun Belt Migration

William H. Frey Demographer, Senior Fellow The Brookings Institution Washington, D.C. “ The Sun Belt states gained well over one half million migrants in 2014 to 2015, coming close to matching the 600,000 Snow Belt to Sun Belt migration peak in 2004 to 2005. ”

massive domestic outflows because of high housing costs, lack of job opportunities and high state and local tax rates.

“The eastward migration of Californians has been going on for a long time, since the 1990s,” said Frey. “California acts like a northern state, with its high housing costs.” Continued Next Page

According to WilliamH. Frey, a demographer and senior fellow

Net Domestic In Migration - 2014-2015

Net Domestic Out Migration - 2014-2015

SOURCE: Census Bureau, The Brookings Institution

SOURCE: Census Bureau, The Brookings Institution


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