Management’s Discussion and Analysis
Saskatchewan Supply and Demand After an active maintenance season (with minimal market impacts), October saw a handful of low-priced days in Alberta due to curtailed western egress. Warm temperatures and high production levels saw Alberta storage net injecting until the last three days of November. Given high inventory levels, slow withdrawals in December, and the current forecast, storage could be full again as early as mid-summer 2024. Ample supply and limited demand further downstream left the differential between Alberta and Saskatchewan relatively flat – well below the cost of incremental transport. Saskatchewan Natural Gas Prices The AECO daily index averaged $2.18 per GJ through the three months ended December 31, 2023. The year-over-year decrease from $4.84 per GJ was largely a function of lower global prices, warm weather, and robust storage levels. Traditionally, most natural gas in Saskatchewan (TEP) is priced at a differential to the AECO price. This AECO to TEP differential for the quarter averaged $0.07 per GJ premium compared to $0.58 per GJ the year prior. As discussed last quarter, despite heavy maintenance, daily capacity from AECO to TEP has been readily available this year causing the spread to flatten out. The following chart shows AECO natural gas prices:
AECO Monthly Index Historical Prices
$8.00
$7.00
Forward Price at December 31, 2023 Average Price: $3.02/GJ
Limited Export Capacity from Alberta
$6.00
2015-Present Average Price: $2.61/GJ
$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
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