Travel Will Recover in Stages Perhaps no one has a better finger on the pulse of the airline industry than Edward “Ned” Russell, an Airlines Reporter for Skift. We checked in with him about when he thought Americans would take to the skies en masse once again. Not surprisingly, he sees the recovery in air travel closely tied to vaccine distribution. Ned sees a strong recovery for leisure travel “as vaccines become widely available later this year.” That will be a boon for airlines that cater to “budget-minded holiday-goers.” However, business travel won’t be as quick to return. Ned estimates the return of “these coveted passengers” will still take a few years. Likewise, Ned notes that “international travel will take longer to recover than domestic,” with the recovery happening in stages. He sees the return of travel “between allies and developed countries”—like the U.S. and the United Kingdom—coming back “sooner than in markets that struggle to get vaccines in people’s arms.” Travelers are Booking Cheap Flights Now Optimistic travelers aren’t waiting to get the vaccine to start booking flights. “We hear from members every day who are booking cheap flights for future travel,” notes Scott Keyes, Founder and Chief Flight Expert at Scott’s Cheap Flights. Scott sees a combination of factors driving these bookings. First, travelers are expecting the widespread availability of vaccines in the next few months and hope that this will unlock international travel once again. Also, it’s fairly low risk for travelers to book travel now. Many airlines are currently offering flexibility on flight bookings—even in basic economy. Travelers can use this flexibility to “push their travel back with no penalty if they don’t feel it’s safe come their original travel dates.” Beyond this flexibility, airlines are also tempting travelers with low fares. Scott’s Cheap Flights has found “record low fares on many routes, and travelers are locking those prices in for travel months down the line.” “In essence, many of our members are making future travel plans in pencil rather than in pen,” Scott observes. “If they’re able to get vaccinated soon, then they’ve got a cheap summer flight to look forward to. If there’s big delays in vaccination or border restrictions continue, they can push travel dates back without penalty.” Once travelers are able to take to the skies again, Scott thinks that favorite destinations will be especially in demand. After all, “people didn’t spend the past 12 months cooped up, eagerly awaiting the day when they can get out and travel again, only to make their first trip somewhere halfway down their bucket list. Instead, people are going to want to visit places at the top of their bucket lists.”
Scott sees iconic destinations—such as Paris, Rome, Tokyo, Sydney, Rio—surging in popularity once the pandemic is over as “travelers seek to make up for lost time.” Another Ruined Spring Break, But Hope for Summer Speaking of lost time, families are quickly approaching what’s likely to be another ruined spring break. “We all hoped spring break 2021 would be ‘normal’,” pines Summer Hull—Director of Travel Content for The Points Guy—but “we now know that’s not the case.” Summer—who’s also been known by the Mommy Points moniker since 2011—has found that “some schools and colleges are forgoing spring break completely this year.” For families that are getting a spring break, not all are going to take advantage. “The families that haven’t really been traveling since March are likely to sit out spring break and try again in the summer.” For the families that do travel for spring break, “we expect to continue to see a preference given to domestic and drivable locations.” Entry restrictions may also come into play. So, families seeking sun may head to Florida while those seeking snow may head to Utah or Colorado. She sees a fair number of road trips this summer. “But don’t rule out the sky.” She knows that “lots of families are sitting on airline credits from canceled 2020 trips and those credits won’t last forever.” So, as soon as families feel it is safe to do so, “it will be wheels-up to see grandparents, head to that destination beach, or to redeem those Disney tickets.” Points & Miles Travelers Have Pent-Up Demand Too The elimination of change fees isn’t just helping convince travelers to book cash tickets. Many airlines have also eliminated change fees on award tickets. And a lot of travelers have built up quite a massive stockpile of points and miles that they’re ready to use to book trips. “Travelers are chomping at the bit to get back out there,” notes Spencer Howard, who runs Straight to the Points— an email subscription service sharing premium cabin award travel deals. At this point, travelers see the “light at the end of the tunnel” and are excited to book anything. Spencer believes that 2021 is the year of “revenge travel” after travelers were left disappointed that they had to cancel all of their trips in 2020. He sees that award travelers are mostly booking trips later in the year. However, some award travelers are hoping to travel internationally again as soon as this summer. For each deal alert that he sends out, Spencer quickly hears back from numerous subscribers that are happy
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May 2021 | The Business Review
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