RENNIE OUTLOOK 2023
housing: the inertia of 2022 carries into 2023
RESALES
At the beginning of 2022, we foresaw record-low housing inventory, increasing interest rates, and affordability challenges in the year ahead. Ok...perhaps we didn’t quite predict the magnitude of rate hikes through last year, but the expectation was that housing market activity generally, and MLS sales in the Vancouver Region specifically, would come in below 2021’s record of almost 70,600 transactions. Indeed this was the case, with our estimate of 56,000 MLS sales proving to be more robust than the 43,600 sales that took place. The first and second halves of 2022 were really two different markets, with the annualized pace of sales in 1H (54,200) coming in at about our full-year prediction, before the pace dropped off in 2H to an annualized pace of 32,100 sales.
OUR 2023 OUTLOOK The inertia in the Vancouver Region’s housing market from the second half of 2022 will carry into the first half of 2023, with a total of 42,000 MLS sales predicted for the year—18% below the past-decade average. This would include sales of 15,000 detached homes, 8,000 townhomes, and 19,000 condos.
RESALES
PRE-SALES
As with resale, the pre-sale segment of Metro Vancouver’s housing market in the second half of 2022 was very different from that in the first half. Indeed, with 2021’s wind still in its sails, there were more than 11,100 total pre-sales in the region in 1H, with this number then falling to just 3,500 in 2H as higher interest rates, combined with falling prices in resale, eroded buyers’ appetite for pre-sale homes. This put last year’s pre-sale count (of 14,600) 4% below the past 10-year average. The path for pre-sale counts in 2023 is expected to improve through the latter half of the year, as we are only just entering what is likely to be a period of falling mortgage rates and a recovery in the region’s resale market—the latter being an important pre-cursor to a more active pre-sale market.
OUR 2023 OUTLOOK Overall, we expect activity in Metro Vancouver’s pre-sale market in 2023 to be slightly slower than in 2022, based largely on what looks to be a sluggish start to the year. Overall, we anticipate there being 13,000 pre-sales by year-end, including sales of 6,000 concrete homes, 4,500 woodframe homes, and 2,500 townhomes.
PRE-SALES
Copyright © 2023 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January 31, 2023. Data from the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley Boards, Statistics Canada, Zonda Urban, CMHC, & rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 3
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