RENNIE OUTLOOK 2023
HOUSING STARTS
Our prediction from last year that there would be 25,100 housing starts in Metro Vancouver in 2022 was ultimately more or less on the mark (there were just under 26,000 starts). This put 2022’s housing construction activity, insofar as starts are concerned, 12% above the previous decade’s annual average. As we look ahead to 2023, it is the number of building permits issued over the past couple of years, along with a proportion of previously-sold multi family projects throughout Metro Vancouver, that will largely dictate the number of housing starts that are realized. It is important to note, however, that a tight labour market—particularly in the construction industry, which has the highest job vacancy rate of any sector in the province—could at the margin serve as constraint on building activity. OUR 2023 OUTLOOK
While CMHC is predicting what would amount to an all-time record of 33,000 housing starts for Metro Vancouver in 2023, we expect a more “modest” 27,900 starts—still 7% higher than 2022’s and 20% above the previous decade-average.
STARTS
HOUSING COMPLETIONS
On the heels of a record 25,200 housing completions in Metro Vancouver in 2021—all the more remarkable given it was achieved in the midst of a pandemic—the region managed to complete 15% fewer homes in 2022, rendering our prediction for last year (of 24,200 completions) overly-optimistic. The construction delays due to labour constraints and a lack of available materials (the latter the result of lingering supply chain disruptions)—which held back completion counts in 2022—are expected to be less of a factor in 2023.
OUR 2023 OUTLOOK Based on previous years’ starts counts and the current inventory of homes under construction, we predict housing completions in Metro Vancouver will total 23,400 in 2023. This would be 9% higher than in 2022 and 11% above the past- decade average.
COMPLETIONS
Copyright © 2023 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January 31, 2023. Data from the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley Boards, Statistics Canada, Zonda Urban, CMHC, & rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 4
Made with FlippingBook - professional solution for displaying marketing and sales documents online