RENNIE OUTLOOK 2023
prices & rents: two different paths in 2023
HOME PRICES
The million dollar question in our housing market is how far will prices drop and when will they start to rise again. To level-set, benchmark MLS condo prices have fallen by 9% from their April 2022 peak, while benchmark detached prices have fallen by 15% from their February 2022 apex. To-date these declines have been shallower than during previous down-and-up price cycles (see: 2008-09 and 2017-18), and with persistently low inventory, pent-up demand, a strong job market, elevated net migration, and what is projected to be a more favourable interest rate environment, prices are expected to begin rising again in 2023. OUR 2023 OUTLOOK
We expect benchmark MLS condo prices to reach their floor in the early spring before growing again thereafter, to 98% of their 2022 peak by the end of 2023. For detached homes we see the price recovery lagging that of condos, reaching 88% of their 2022 peak price level by year’s end.
PRICES
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MONTHLY RENTS
Rental markets across the country, and certainly here in Metro Vancouver, have been on a roller-coaster ride since the beginning of the pandemic in 2020. First, vacancy rates rose and rents stagnated as the renter demographic was hit hardest by social-distancing policies that mostly impacted sectors like food services, hospitality, and tourism. Current rental market conditions are more akin to those of pre-pandemic period, except that average monthly rents have been rising at a rapid pace: in 2022, average advertised asking rents rose by 20%, though this pace is expected to slow through 2023.
OUR 2023 OUTLOOK By the end of 2023, we expect that average advertised asking rents in Metro Vancouver will, on a year-over-year basis, be 7% higher, with monthly rent for studios averaging $2,500, 1-beds $2,700, and 2-beds at $3,500.
RENTS
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Copyright © 2023 rennie group of companies. All rights reserved. This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the rennie group of companies. Current as of January 31, 2023. Data from the Greater Vancouver and Fraser Valley Boards, Statistics Canada, Zonda Urban, CMHC, & rennie. While the information and data contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. rennie group of companies does not assume responsibility or liability for any inaccuracies. The recipient of the information should take steps as the recipient may deem necessary to verify the information prior to placing any reliance upon the information. The information contained within this report should not be used as an opinion of value, such opinions should and can be obtained from a rennie and associates advisor. All information is subject to change and any property may be withdrawn from the market at any time without notice or obligation to the recipient from rennie group of companies. E.&O.E. 5
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