zero-duty access and competitive freight lanes. However, with Australia’s crop outlook weakening, some buyers are starting to reassess forward coverage. This may lead to demand returning to U.S. origin, particularly for spec-specific or gap-fill volumes, contingent on favorable price movements. For now, the market remains in a holding pattern. Europe: June shipments to Europe reached 44.4 million pounds, a modest 2% increase versus last year. Despite a sluggish start to the season, cumulative shipments are now tracking flat year over year. Intra-regional dynamics have shifted, with Spain retaining its top position despite an 11% year-to-date decline. With the Objective Estimate now released and indicating a potentially larger crop, buyers are expected to begin evaluating new crop positions. However, the pending decision on EU tariff enforcement, now postponed until August, is likely to curb near-term purchasing activity as market participants adopt a cautious stance. Middle East: Shipments to the Middle East fell sharply in June, totaling 19.4 million pounds—a decline of over 30% year over year. This pullback reflects the impact of regional instability and geopolitical tensions, which have disrupted near-term demand. Despite the weak June performance, year-to-date shipments are up 7%, bolstered by strong performance in Jordan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. Looking ahead, with Ramadan expected to fall early in 2026, forward demand is anticipated to accelerate as buyers seek to secure early shipments from the 2025 crop to ensure sufficient coverage. Domestic: June domestic shipments totaled 51.4 million pounds, a 17.2% decline from the same month last year. This brings year-to-date domestic shipments to 621 million pounds, down 8% from the prior year. In crop year 2023, USDA support contributed approximately 20 million pounds to the market, the majority of which shipped by the end of June. While this assistance offered short-term relief, underlying domestic demand remains soft, challenged by broader economic conditions and shifting consumer purchasing behavior. Going forward, it will be critical to reaffirm the value and versatility of almonds across all product categories to support consumer engagement and drive demand.
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JULY–AUGUST 2025
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