MARKET REPORT
Market Perspective Heading into the report, the supply and demand balance appeared relatively stable. However, softer late-season shipments suggest a slightly higher carryout in the mid-500 million-pound range, translating to a manageable 19% carryout-to-shipments ratio. While many looked to the Objective Report for clearer direction, its release has instead introduced greater uncertainty, with widespread belief that the forecast is overestimated. Market discovery in the coming weeks may prove difficult, particularly with added complexity from the extended tariff review under President Trump’s trade policy. As a result, hand-to-mouth buying is expected to continue as the industry closely monitors receipts and actual production against forecasted levels. CROP The 2025 California Almond Objective Measurement Report by USDA NASS forecasts the crop at 3.0 billion pounds, up from the 2.8-billion-pound Subjective Estimate and the 2.7 billion-pound 2024 crop. This projection is based on 1.39 million bearing acres and a yield of 2,160 pounds per acre. However, many in the industry view this forecast as potentially overestimated, citing recent declines in new plantings and ongoing pressure on grower profitability. These challenges have led to reduced inputs that have impaired the productivity of a significant number of orchards and even the abandonment of some, potentially creating a gap between reported acreage and actual, harvestable land. The projected yield also exceeds the 10- and 15- year weighted averages. As harvest progresses, industry focus will remain on receipts and realized yields to assess whether actual production aligns with or diverges from the forecast. COMMITMENTS Total commitments reached 312 million pounds, showing a 10% decline compared to the previous year. New sales for the month were 96.6 million pounds, representing a 5% year-over-year increase. Current shipments and commitments now account for 87.4% of total supply, slightly below last year’s pace of 89.4%. New crop sales are reported at 111.5 million pounds, down sharply from 271 million pounds at this time last year. Ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and crop size continues to be a limiting factor in forward bookings.
Laura Gerhard, Vice President of Ingredients and International Branded, Blue Diamond Growers
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ALMOND FACTS
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